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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/14-3/16

AJS said:
Regardless, it’s gonna be a high end outbreak no matter what the supercells decide to do.
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I’m going to call a spade a spade. This event is going to be bad regardless. This also has the ability to easily go historic, with an upper echelon tornadic environment you don’t see often, and that all going to depend on Storm mode and what happens in the OWS. If the CAM solutions verify, then you have a bad outbreak, but it steps it back from “historic” potential

Really intriguing to see how this shakes out.
 
Seeing two possibilities with the CAMs.

1) It's doing the morning flip flop and previous suite runs were more accurate.

2) It is indeed latching onto the correct environment trends and activity may be linear.

Like @ColdFront said, we don't need discrete OWS development to have a serious outbreak with violent tornadoes (see last night, and these 12Z CAM UH streaks). However, if it were to be linear in mode, that'd be at least a somewhat less severe outcome. Nevertheless, I'm not sure it's right, because there are confluence bands setting up over MS right now. Model-watching is going to become much less valuable than nowcasting, but worth mentioning these trends, and how they compare/contrast to the real environment.

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UncleJuJu98 said:
The confluence bands are ridiculous in South/Central Mississippi.
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It's the confluence bands that may be leading to the linear look on cams..first of all cams aren't really handling the eml or cap correctly, plus there isn't alot of forcing to produce the linear look...I really question the cams until I see how they start to pop, also those bands are under cap so they can only do so much til energy ejects from the west.
 
David in SW Blount said:
Has anyone ever evacuated from an oncoming, confirmed large tornado or considered evacuating by driving away at a right angle? If and only if no other supercells are threatening an escape route? While we have a basement, it's raised above ground on two sides. Of course, my biggest worry is that we would drive away and something else would develop in our evacuation area really quickly, and then we have no shelter in a car.
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i’ve done it, once — the march 25, 2021 shelby county EF3.

i think it takes a pretty specific set of circumstances to make it worthwhile though.

i live on state highway 119 (SW to NE orientation) about 2 miles southwest of highway 280 (NW to SE orientation)

i had been watching the storm make a beeline for my house for about an hour, and when it still had a debris ball as it got to US31/I65, i decided to take my wife and cats and bolt and drive southeast to Chelsea.

it was a nerve wracking experience hoping i didn’t drive over a nail or something, but i probably cleared the path of the tornado with about 6 or 7 minutes to spare.

as it turns out, the tornado missed my house to the south about a half mile, and even if it had hit, i would have been fine as damage was EF2 to low end EF3. but when you just see a perfect hook echo and deep blue debris ball, it felt like there was a real chance it could have been an EF4 or worse headed right for my house.

took a perfect combination of imminent danger, potential of it being a high end long tracker, and a favorable road setup to allow me to drive away from the storm at the correct angle to make it make sense.
 
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