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Archive March 18-20th, 2018 Severe Weather

Widespread 3000-3500 SBcape on the WRF.

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ARCC said:
Then you have the 0z 3km NAM for all its badness, pops a small complex that pretty much poos the threat across most of the area.

Fun forecast.
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Huh? The 00z 3km NAM was the worst I have seen it. Multiple discrete supercells across MS, TN, AL, and GA.
 
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I believe how those storms track out of Louisiana is key. I could see them tracking slow enough to cut off northern Alabama during the morning hours allowing a clean warm sector to develop during the afternoon.

ARCC said:
The strange thing is that the WRF ARW isn't nearly as bullish. Normally the NMMB is the scrooge, not the other way around.
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It does look a little slower with storms arriving, which could allow more cape to build....
KoD said:
Lol right? I looked at it and put the phone down.

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It's due to how the NAM generates convection. It won't generate ANYTHING if there's mid-level dry air in place.

There WILL be numerous storms tomorrow. That is certain. The 3km NAM's convection scheme is just awful whenever a cap is in place. The background envrionment remains VOLATILE, and that's the main takeaway.

And re: The LA complex. It's already dying and is dying fairly rapidly. That's not going to put a lid on the northern extent of the threat..
 
rolltide_130 said:
It's due to how the NAM generates convection. It won't generate ANYTHING if there's mid-level dry air in place.

There WILL be numerous storms tomorrow. That is certain. The 3km NAM's convection scheme is just awful whenever a cap is in place. The background envrionment remains VOLATILE, and that's the main takeaway.

And re: The LA complex. It's already dying and is dying fairly rapidly. That's not going to put a lid on the northern extent of the threat..
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That has been my thinking too...I just don't see enough to our south, maybe in the morning but there just isn't enough there for the afternoon to be an issue.
 
rolltide_130 said:
It's due to how the NAM generates convection. It won't generate ANYTHING if there's mid-level dry air in place.

There WILL be numerous storms tomorrow. That is certain. The 3km NAM's convection scheme is just awful whenever a cap is in place. The background envrionment remains VOLATILE, and that's the main takeaway.

And re: The LA complex. It's already dying and is dying fairly rapidly. That's not going to put a lid on the northern extent of the threat..
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Yeah there is substantial capping taking hold ahead of that complex.
 
Taylor Campbell said:
I'm confused as to what you are looking at.
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Yeah you're right, after looking at all of the parameters the environment is very volatile, I only glanced at the SLP/Sim Ref.
Looks like it's cranking up the LLJ a little more than the past few runs. Yikes
 
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