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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/14-3/16

Clancy said:
This post is principally aimed at Georgia
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Although most of my family is in Alabama, I’m now in West Ga, just over the state line, so my husband and I will be watching Ga WX as well…we have a large oak tree looming over our house so we will be seeking shelter elsewhere!!
 
wx_guy said:
Just FYI --- > On Google, the 50 hottest "trending now" topics, according to Google Trends...where does the weather rate on it? 3rd? 5th?

"St Louis Weather" (which is imminent) is #43.

"Storm Prediction Center" is #50.

And that's it.
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well... to be fair, i would expect weather to rank higher later tonight and tomorrow.
 
Some of the modelled supercells that may move into MS/AL later this evening are likely to develop out of this region of weak echoes. Warrants close observation as the afternoon goes on.
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Fred Gossage said:
I will go on record to formally state that the placement of the northern edge of the current HIGH is not only dangerously wrong, but it will cause fatalities tomorrow... and I don't care who is mad or offended by my saying so. I am already seeing a significant number of general public comments of "I'm not in the pink. No threat here." and they are tuning out. Some of them are tuning out for the duration because they actually believe that just because they aren't in the 3rd ever Day 2 HIGH in recorded United States history at this moment, that they are not at any threat. They won't be tuned back in when the data forces the SPC forecasters on duty to wake up to the reality of the actual placement of the outbreak and expand the HIGH northward. Unless the NSSL WRF was followed blindly, there was an overwhelming data signal this morning to pull the HIGH all the way to the state line for the northern border. Even the HREF probabilistic guidance that includes that NSSL WRF run has steadily focused north and northwest of the HIGH. I believe the southern extent of it is perfectly fine and needed, but that thing needs to include Tupelo, Iuka, the Shoals, Athens, Cullman, Hamilton, Decatur, Huntsville, and Ardmore... and there is still a signal for violent type tracks into southern middle TN.
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I mean there's portions of NW MS and NE AL that are only in the Enhanced risk... I feel like they should've been more judicious with this especially knowing the eyeballs that a Day 2 High brings
 
Lori said:
Although most of my family is in Alabama, I’m now in West Ga, just over the state line, so my husband and I will be watching Ga WX as well…we have a large oak tree looming over our house so we will be seeking shelter elsewhere!!
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Oh I didn't know you were in GA now, welcome welcome! You tell that oak to behave tomorrow!
 
Yea I’m not gonna lie I think people are putting to much stock into the affects the wildfires are going to have.

Regardless if they help nucleation of water molecules via dust particle advecting into the storms, or detrimental as in strengthening the EML; the affects are so insignificant I don’t find it worth talking about and filling up the thread with more clutter.
 
Just some thoughts from a weather enthusiast across the Atlantic... but I have really become extremely concerned about tonight across Northern Arkansas, and especially Southern/Eastern Missouri into Southern Illinois tonight, as trends have really increased confidence in a significant tornado outbreak. Wouldn't mind betting we see a High-Risk caliber event overnight - have really got a terrible feeling having looked at some of the latest model and observation data.

Confidence has massively increased that a tongue of quality moisture will now extent all the way up to C IL by around ~03z, and given the strength of the low level jet and steep lapse rates in the mid levels this is yielding a highly favorable environment for intense tornadoes - just take a look at the STP trend on the RAP.

More so, the compact upper low will be ejecting just to the north and west of this moist tongue. I added the rough extent of the 60F dps in the context of the 300mb chart so you can get a better idea of how they interact. This kind of look, where you have the tip of a speed max just impinging along an axis of instability, is a really really concerning look, reminiscent of a lot of classic tornado outbreaks. The forcing will be strong, but not extreme as it would be just a couple hundred miles to the north in which the upscale growth is largely favored. Your shear vectors are perpendicular enough for discrete supercells.

trend-rap-2025031418-f009.stp.us_ov.gif300wh.conus.png

Latest CAMS have now honed in on supercells developing along the pacific front/wind shift and maturing as we get the moisture return "just in time". When using CAMS (and In recommend viewing sim reflectivity the very last in your forecast!) you have to think - does this make sense and align with what you expect from the synoptic and environment? And in this case the answer is very much yes. The upper pattern as stated above really supports semi-discrete supercells, and you can easily expected broad showery convection in the very strong warm air advection that will be ongoing overnight. This will likely mature into intense supercells as models show. I can't say I fully buy the line of discretes all the way down to LA/ southern MS, but from N AR into IL these seem well modelled.

Forecast soundings I'm picking ahead of these cells show environments easily favorable of EF3-4+, violent tornadoes. Sure, the boundary layer is slightly dry, but you have a very solid instability profile, especially in the upper levels, and extreme SR inflow will likely be able to balance the downdrafts. That hodograph is extremely well ventilated throughout the entire depth of the cloud layer, easily capable of violent tornadoes. As the effects of diurnal heating wanes the temperatures will lower slightly and bring down those LCLs. I am extremely concerned, and haven't personally felt this way about a setup since the 3/31 outbreak.

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Doubt the SPC would upgrade so late in the cycle, but I would be in full support of a tornado driven High Risk from Northeast Arkansas into Eastern Missouri and Southern Illinois. PLEASE take warnings seriously. I sincerely, really hope I have read this completely wrong. Best case our boundary layer is too dry and the RFD isn't buoyant enough for steady state, intense tornadoes.
 
And in reference to the wildfires, there's not massive fires all over Mexico, those fires going in OK and TX are very small in scale compared to the large ones before. I don't see any way they will affect this system, and no one in any capacity seems to be worried about it either.
 
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