Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/14-3/16

[CheeselandSkies]

Limited visibility with 65 mph storm motions...yeah no thanks. Hopefully common sense wins out but they need to be aware how dangerous this is

rain-wrapped highway-speed, low LCL wedges that are gonna be obscured by hills and trees? chasers' paradise.

The temptation has been strong but I'm leaning toward sitting this one out. The best chance of discrete cells on the north end looks like it will start in central MO and track to near or just north of the St. Louis area by the 00-02Z timeframe. It would be at least 4, probably 5 hours for me each way for storms that would be after dark, after working from 4AM-1:30 PM today.

 

[lake.effect]

Think they go high?

It's a coin toss at this point, but I'll say yes.

 

[Maxis_s]

I say they're gonna pull the trigger.

 

[tornado examiner]

I thought these cells for Saturday would be vented classic supercells…

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

So glad they have more shelters now. Unfortunately it’s hard to get 0 fatalities with violent tornadoes in this area..

Yes, you're right. However, being aware of local shelters, and the situation in general, drastically increases the chances of survival.

 

[Maxis_s]

I thought these cells for Saturday would be vented classic supercells…

They will, but it's still Dixie.

 

[Kds86z]

Yes, you're right. However, being aware of local shelters, and the situation in general, drastically increases the chances of survival.

How did 4/27 differ? Less shelters?

 

[JPN366]

I’m in north Shelby County, Alabama. I hope I have absolutely nothing interesting to tell you folks on Sunday.

 

[lake.effect]

Gravity waves visible on HRRR over central MS tomorrow...

 

[TheSuckZone]

And we're off

 

[Tomcats Forever!]

View attachment 35527
I say they're gonna pull the trigger.

That model's had St Louis for a bullseye all day.

 

[Timbertrader]

So which model do yall think has the best "handle" on this thing right now ? I.E. Who do you trust the most for this type event ?

 

[brianc33710]

Spann is speaking!

 

[CheeselandSkies]

How did 4/27 differ? Less shelters?

Infrastructure issues from the morning storms were part of it. Widespread power outages and some NWR transmitters were down, as well.

That and I think the tornadoes were just plainly that strong. One of the issues I have with the way the EF-scale is currently being used is that it doesn't convey the vast difference in survivability between a tornado that gets rated at the bottom end of EF4 for damage to one structure, vs. one that does 190 MPH+ high-end EF4 (read: for all intents and purposes, old-school F5) damage over a huge swath.

 

[MMWX]

So which model do yall think has the best "handle" on this thing right now ? I.E. Who do you trust the most for this type event ?

HRRR is just about always the model to go to for short term mesoscale updates.

 

[Kds86z]

Yes, you're right. However, being aware of local shelters, and the situation in general, drastically increases the chances of survival.

True but there are those who don’t take it seriously

 

[UncleJuJu98]

18z hrrr is actually ridiculous, showing 7-8 supercells with potentially tornadoes on the ground at the same time.

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

How did 4/27 differ? Less shelters?

They've built a lot more shelters since 4/27/2011, yes. There will still be plenty of people who disregard this threat and continue with their Saturday plans, and there's no getting past that. However both states are equipped to handle the threat and have resources for the people who are taking it seriously.

True but there are those who don’t take it seriously

I mean... obviously. I'm not talking about those people.

 

[Brice W]

18z hrrr is actually ridiculous

Was gonna say I’d be fine with a HE MDT or a high.

 

[Maxis_s]

How on earth does it keep uptrending. I cannot physically comprehend how it gets any worse.