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Archive March 18-20th, 2018 Severe Weather

One of the reasons the helicity is higher is because the surface low is a little further south and slower to move west to east. This is causing winds to back over the eastern half of Alabama.
sfcwind_mslp.us_se.png
 
Kory said:
Fred and I have been chatting. He brought up 4/10/09 as an analog. Looks like a good match to me. Maybe adjust that a touch westward.
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I personally agree with this analog as well. It does look very similar.
 
Richardjacks said:
One of the reasons the helicity is higher is because the surface low is a little further south and slower to move west to east. This is causing winds to back over the eastern half of Alabama.
sfcwind_mslp.us_se.png
Click to expand...
Also up into the Tennessee Valley as well. However with where the position of the low is this looks like an Alabama threat if this were to verify
 
We have another briefing at 2:30PM but will likely be the same as what is said in the HWO. We have already sent word to our spotters to charge batteries and prepare for activation. Public safety/schools have been alerted to the possibility of severe as well. Just waiting to see what changes if any happen today.
 
Kory said:
The CAMs or convective available models are showing more backed surface winds and better convergence along the boundary. Fires off some nasty supercells in West/Central AL and brings them east.
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Gotcha. I see one of them tracking over where I am right now (I know that it can't predict exactly where paths will be, but kinda eerie).
 
Richardjacks said:
instead of weakening, the 12nam has the surface low still deepening as it passes to the north. In several ways, this run is an outlier when compared to more recent runs.
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The biggest change in the models over the last 12-24 hours is that the confluence in the east is weaker, so the vort max is not deamplifying as quickly and also in turn isn't moving as quickly compared to yesterday's runs. Also a secondary piece of vorticity is swinging around the back side which looks to be the lobe of vorticity touching off the storms by 21z tomorrow. It is that second piece that gets its act together more overnight tomorrow night and leads to the severe weather for northern Florida on Tuesday as it swings through.
 
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