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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/14-3/16

Mundiejc said:
This is the typical line - but there is something to the fact that highway 69 corridor, Tuscaloosa to Counterpoint, northern Shelby County (in the bham metro) and Nashville where I lived for 15 years, the same path from bellevue through the northern part of downtown, east Nashville, over to hermitage, have been hit by strong tornados multiple times since we've had good records. I don't have data to back it up, but my hypothesis is a combination of angle of approach from the most dynamic systems in combo with topographical enhancement. especially valley's or plateaus among more rugged areas. Tornados can go over mountains and through rugged terrain, but just given the data we have, it seems far more likely that if there are significant, long track tornados, they will be in some of these corridors of sw to ne flat areas among mountains.
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I remember seeing that UAH in Huntsville was doing a study on how topography relates to tornado formation, but I haven’t bothered to follow up or try to find if they have published anything.
 
Psalm 148:8 said:
Every time the HRRR runs it gives me the freaks!! Is there anything to mitigate this storm threat?? I’m very concerned for all in its path.. I have spent my day subbing at a high school informing everyone I can about a safety plan, and being weather aware Saturday nite. Some are already making/changing plans to be safe.. others it concerns me deeply when they say.. oh it’s just gonna be thunderstorms.. but what can I do.. plant the seed.. if they think I’m a nut for warning them how to be safe.. so be it.. I’m subbing/teaching a math class today.. but I am taking time to tell them about the potential Saturday night and how to be safe, because I definitely want to see them next Friday when I sub for the same teacher.
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I'm subbing too but I'm afraid I'd get in trouble for getting the kids in panic mode. Since this pm is closer to the outbreak I'll mention the weather situation to my pm classes. Actually I do think I said something this am in passing but probably not as well as I should've.

Also, don't just concentrate on the "numerous tornadoes." 100 mph straight line winds & baseball sized hail are incredibly dangerous too and will trigger sirens & EMA warnings in mobile devices.
 
Mundiejc said:
This is the typical line - but there is something to the fact that highway 69 corridor, Tuscaloosa to Counterpoint, northern Shelby County (in the bham metro) and Nashville where I lived for 15 years, the same path from bellevue through the northern part of downtown, east Nashville, over to hermitage, have been hit by strong tornados multiple times since we've had good records. I don't have data to back it up, but my hypothesis is a combination of angle of approach from the most dynamic systems in combo with topographical enhancement. especially valley's or plateaus among more rugged areas. Tornados can go over mountains and through rugged terrain, but just given the data we have, it seems far more likely that if there are significant, long track tornados, they will be in some of these corridors of sw to ne flat areas among mountains.
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the southwest to northeast track... yes... because of storm motion, we know that a tornado that is effecting helena is very likely to wind up near leeds, or one that is on the southside of tuscaloosa is likely to find itself in the western suburbs of birmingham an hour later... and roads that have a SW to NE orientation (like alabama highway 69 through walker and cullman counties, or alabama highway 119 through north shelby county) will certainly have famous tornadoes that track over a long portion of their path.

but i really think the idea that tanner or tuscaloosa is cursed while hoover and hartselle are blessed is silly.

there could be (and likely is) some topographical effect... but violent tornadoes really don't care. these thunderstorms are 40 and 50 thousand feet tall. they are going to look at a 400 foot ridgetop like shades or double oak mountain and laugh at it while they keep on coming. when you start talking about peaks in the 3000 and 4000 foot range, they can possibly disrupt a thunderstorm a little bit more, but as you noted, they can still power through. I know there was an EF4 in Great Smokey National Park on 4/27/11 for instance.
 
Kragg said:
I remember seeing that UAH in Huntsville was doing a study on how topography relates to tornado formation, but I haven’t bothered to follow up or try to find if they have published anything.
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I think this is one of those cases where topography will be overruled regardless of merit. The dynamics of this storm are too overwhelming for that to matter in my opinion
 
sak said:
if i were guessing, it is because while CAPE is sufficient, it is does not look overwhelming like we often see in events later in the season. 1000-2000 joules per kilogram is nothing to sneeze at, but is still a far cry from the 4000+ joules per kilogram levels of instability we saw on 4/27/2011 (or other April events)
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In the d2 outlook they explicitly mention 2000-3500 j/kg, so it definitely could approach that if things hold steady.
 
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