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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/14-3/16

Kds86z said:
I need to go back and read 4/27 outlooks
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The Day 2 for this Saturday reads every bit as strong (if not moreso) than the Day 2 from April 26th 2011. Some of that is just due to variation in how forecasts are worded. It's almost been a decade and a half.

04/26/11 Day 2:

Storm Prediction Center Apr 26, 2011 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.
www.spc.noaa.gov

I knew this day would eventually come, but I can't believe we are actually comparing an upcoming event to 04/27. It's unbelievable to me.

It is getting pretty disturbing how similar *some* of the projected parameter space is to 4/27. Can only hope for a downtrend or a failure mode that mitigates the threat. I think it is quite clear this is probably the most ominous threat that most of AL/MS has experienced since 4/27.
 
Can’t really make what you’re trying to say. Statistically you said there is a high risk of tornadoes, but you don’t want to downplay it. Having a wording like this supports of a high end threat. You can look back at some other D2’s and see for yourself. I don’t think we are overhyping just given the model data we now have. There doesn’t seem to be any sort of hindering in this system except maybe for some early convection to last a bit longer than forecasted. Also some of the meds in here are some of the most conservative on this thread. If they are talking about a big event then it would definitely catch my eye to see the significance in this, but that’s just me personally.
 
Seems like they have downplayed Georgia a little bit (severe risk will continue) but included Middle TN in the “intense” early development phrasing a little more than I expected after seeing the amount of contamination modeled.

I’m interested to see how severe the hail is on this outbreak. That was one unbelievable feature of 4/27/11 that I don’t think the south has seen since, but MAN those were some hailers.
 
Brice W said:
Can’t really make what you’re trying to say. Statistically you said there is a high risk of tornadoes, but you don’t want to downplay it. Having a wording like this supports of a high end threat. You can look back at some other D2’s and see for yourself. I don’t think we are overhyping just given the model data we now have. There doesn’t seem to be any sort of hindering in this system except maybe for some early convection to last a bit longer than forecasted. Also some of the meds in here are some of the most conservative on this thread. If they are talking about a big event then it would definitely catch my eye to see the significance in this, but that’s just me personally.
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I was saying I believe a high risk should've been issued given the nature of the threat, and keeping it at moderate is underselling it.
 
Got a question for the gurus on here (While I am a weather spotter, I'm still a newbie on all of the interworking of severe weather): Which models should I look at to understand how bad the wind and tornado threats will be? I'd love to be able to understand how to see if it's going to be bad in my neck of the woods in East TN.
 
Grand Poo Bah said:
I was saying I believe a high risk should've been issued given the nature of the threat, and keeping it at moderate is underselling it.
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AH! Okay yeah that makes sense. My guess they kept it MDT because there is still some small scale differences in the models with the convection. If the convection stay longer than forecasted I can see them staying with the MDT until the D1. I also believe because they wanna see how this system for Friday will transpire and go from there. Sorry about that!
 
For tonight… The position of the mid level jet just to the North of the instability plume always looked fairly interesting for a maximised discrete tornado risk, so it makes sense to see almost all CAMS depict this scenario in some form. But some of the output is just really concerning. I’m even wondering if higher tornado probabilities can’t be ruled out.
 
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