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Xenesthis
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Any chance of moderate upgrade?
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Yes the SPC has left the door wide open for an upgrade
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Any chance of moderate upgrade?
Sent from my H1611 using Tapatalk
Yep I feel confident they will.Yes the SPC has left the door wide open for an upgrade
Yep I feel confident they will.
Sent from my H1611 using Tapatalk
That's true if we get any cloud breaks things could quickly explode..I wouldn’t be surprised to see an area of moderate let alone enhanced. It really just depends on what model comes closest to verifying.
Yea I think the rule of pds..watch would be the rule Monday..That's true if we get any cloud breaks things could quickly explode..
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Haven't had time to look at details but it appears the 12z name is slightly backing off low level shear on 12z run.
I think there will be a tornado threat, just now sure how significant.I’m not fully confident on the tornado threat with this system just yet. It’s still very uncertain.
Haven't had time to look at details but it appears the 12z name is slightly backing off low level shear on 12z run.
I think there will be a tornado threat, just now sure how significant.
Thanks Fred, I wish had more time today to look closer...maybe later this afternoon I will...not looking good.Some of it is with feedback from a surface low that magically develops much further east in middle TN by afternoon... previous runs had been doing this too. The NAM looks like it is trending toward correcting this, though. But even with that the case, the 12z run of the 3 km NAM... which uses the 12km for its synoptics... is doing this... WITH the south-southwest to south surface winds and the feedback issues with the low...
And the forecast soundings with the virtual temperature correction to the thermodynamic profile then show 1 km EHIs that are as high as 5-6 near Birmingham...
....along with the sickle hodographs that have the rightward kink in the lowest 1 kilometer...
The 3 km has also, since it has gotten within range the past couple of runs, had a 50 kt 850mb jet from 18Z Monday onward.
SREF might peak your interest also. 70% chance that the STP exceeds 3. 30-49.999% percent chance it exceeds 5...
The hail threat seems substantial.....
Yes, the 18nam has trended worse, especially for north and east Al...will be interesting to see if the trend continues. Very concerning look there.The 18z NAM run definitely trended more impressive than the 12z run did.. this is going back in the other direction.
Near Huntsville..