Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/14-3/16

[tennessee storm chaser]

15% sig tornado risk…will likely be issued for Friday. Imo

I have been saying that all day. Myself

 

[jiharris0220]

The majority of these UH tracks (not counting the ones located in north Illinois/south eastern Iowa) are surfaced based and likely tornadic.

 

[OhOkayThen]

15% sig tornado risk…will likely be issued for Friday. Imo

HRRR continues to trend more supercellular for Friday night.

 

[Shakespeare 2016]

Hopefully it is not true but I had a dream about this upcoming tornado outbreak and it was really horrible. It is a scary premonition.

 

[Clancy]

Just your average 5 AM supercells. Early Saturday morning, before the main event.

 

[sak]

No, the SPC had questions about how the morning convection would affect the afternoon outbreak. As it was, much of TN & all of KY was spared by lingering rainfall.

the crazy thing is the morning squall line event alone would have been enough for a high risk to verify... although i guess much of it would have counted on the previous day's outlook because it rolled through before 7am

 

[Maxis_s]

Morning convection is more south and occurs later than in previous runs. Looks like it's also further east so it may have less impact? We'll have to wait for the full run.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

A decent MCS in South Alabama on the HRRR run. Not sure it'll really hamper things but will see,

 

[JPWX]

I dreamed last night that I was telling people about the upcoming threat and they wouldn't listen to me. That's honestly how I feel sometimes.

 

[ColdFront]

Morning convection is more south and occurs later than in previous runs. Looks like it's also further east so it may have less impact? We'll have to wait for the full run.

In my opinion this run actually has so much more crapvection over the state. Not sure I buy it since I can’t find an EML on any sounding so far. But if this verified verbatim it would dampen the threat somewhat.

It has a big MCS sitting in southern central Alabama for hours

 

[Maxis_s]

I was about to call this a major downtrend... until I realized those are supercells and the atmosphere has somehow recovered on these runs.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

View attachment 35373
I was about to call this a major downtrend... until I realized those are supercells and the atmosphere has somehow recovered on these runs.

Yeah, LLJ is super strong, not to mention the sunlight coming out potentially as well. The atmosphere may just reload lol

 

[OhOkayThen]

Morning convection is more south and occurs later than in previous runs. Looks like it's also further east so it may have less impact? We'll have to wait for the full run.

Definitely wouldn't take much from the back end of a 48 hour HRRR run. It has already changed significantly for the Friday night event from what it first showed.

 

[ColdFront]

View attachment 35373
I was about to call this a major downtrend... until I realized those are supercells and the atmosphere has somehow recovered on these runs.

The issue is those cells are going to run straight into a possible cold pool that big rain shield has generated.

This is an unreliable run though this far out. But this could be a big signal right here.

 

[Richardjacks]

Morning convection moving north mid morning sat, could hamper instability for central alabama in the afternoon. That may prevent high day2

 

[Clancy]

Convection, although severe, from the morning round, would theoretically help decrease instability. However, instability still fills in rapidly behind it, which goes to show some of the floor and ceiling discussions we were having earlier. I certainly hope this outcome will verify, but will have to wait and see.

 

[Richardjacks]

Morning convection moving north mid morning sat, could hamper instability for central alabama in the afternoon. That may prevent high day2

Now I see they are supercells....very similar to a warm front moving north.

 

[The Nino]

Yall dreams giving me the creeps

 

[Maxis_s]

Does the crapvection seriously have that little of an effect???

 

[warneagle]

I dreamed last night that I was telling people about the upcoming threat and they wouldn't listen to me. That's honestly how I feel sometimes.

I guess meteorologists are kind of condemned to a role as scientific Cassandras, you can't make people pay attention or listen.