Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/14-3/16

[Clancy]

Here's Spann's aforementioned video.

 

[jiharris0220]

Whew

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

Only two day two highs have been issued before (for 4/7/06 and 4/14/12) - always possible, but they've got to have exceptional confidence to do it before the D1

Worth noting 04/14/12 was also a Saturday. I'm of the belief issuing the high risk while people are still at the office, and have a higher chance of hearing about it through word of mouth is a wise decision. Been seeing way too many anecdotes in here today about the general public still not being aware of what's coming. I'm sure cancelling the St. Patty's day parade and other events is helping to convey the seriousness of the situation.

 

[TornadoFan]

Whew
View attachment 35343

 

[warneagle]

also a massive extremely critical fire area on the backside of this system in TX/OK tomorrow

 

[UncleJuJu98]

James Spann saying that this will probably be upgraded to high risk, and that this is an event that happens "once every few years". Wow.

Spann said that???? Wow! He's very conservative with weather events usually

 

[TheSuckZone]

 

[andyhb]

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For a lack of a better term/phrase, oh my god...

 

[AJS]

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For a lack of a better term/phrase, oh my god...

This is going to be ugly…

 

[Maxis_s]

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For a lack of a better term/phrase, oh my god...

>tfw the NAM is more discrete than the HRRR

 

[Austin Dawg]

also a massive extremely critical fire area on the backside of this system in TX/OK tomorrow

That includes us folks here around Austin. We're supposed to have gusts up to 35 to 40 miles an hour.

 

[tornado examiner]

So…we might be dealing with a historic outbreak if this discrete trend maintains itself.

 

[WeatherDan]

Very much so

 

[stallions3peat]

Just some light-heartedness to ease the tension of the weekend.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

When you pull up that FH047 sim reflectivity frame on the 18Z HRRR, it's like Preacher in Twister:

HELLO!...****.

 

[Clancy]

Absolutely hate how it maintains this broken-apart look as it tracks into East AL and West GA. And this is the NAM. Also, the helicity is just absurd. Jimmies status is definitely rustled.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Whew
View attachment 35343

You don't see this kind of wording very often:

Numerous significant tornadoes are possible on Saturday afternoon and evening...

 

[tornado examiner]

Timbers, shivered…

 

[Tomcats Forever!]

Absolutely hate how it maintains this broken-apart look as it tracks into East AL and West GA. And this is the NAM. Also, the helicity is just absurd. Jimmies status is definitely rustled.
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Hm NAM's sometime the one that picks up a couple of fail modes on these huge setups, too.

 

[jiharris0220]

Absolutely hate how it maintains this broken-apart look as it tracks into East AL and West GA. And this is the NAM. Also, the helicity is just absurd. Jimmies status is definitely rustled.
View attachment 35347View attachment 35348

That’s how you can tell that the juxtaposition of the jet streak supports a discrete mode even without having to look at vertical wind profiles.

The perpendicular orientation of the mid/upper level jet here plus the weak forcing makes it tuff for even the linear/upscale happy NAM models to go qlcs.