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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/14-3/16

I have PTSD from the 1984 outbreak in SC when I was just 7 and can remember the big tree coming through our house like it was yesterday, and add in the 4/27 tornadoes in Alabama, this has my spidey senses tingling. I hate night time storms with a passion, but am worried about being up all night, then the day time storms all day Saturday, storm fatigue will hit a lot of people.

I need to read through the posts here and catch up, but it's not looking good and I have family in Memphis I am worried about as well.
 
Tyler Penland said:
A combo of usually more distance from the best forcing/lift and the Florida peninsula impacting the best moisture flow. If you follow the surface flow you can see that West-central Georgia has some slightly southeast flow from over Florida which limits DP increase as the system approaches. Of course winds turn more south as the storm gets close, but there is less time to get a "primed" atmosphere and the storms usually arrive after dark which limits instability some.

There is often legit CAD in place which keeps surface instability much lower than further west as well.
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Beautiful explanation. Thank you.

I think I remember @Fred Gossage saying something about SW/S winds tend to be more dangerous than SE for the reasons you just mentioned.

Now, that explains why storms have died in the past. For Saturday, I guess that is not quite the case (or other factors are making up for it if it is the case).

Very much looking forward to the D3 update in less than an hour. And then the next D2 update (at 2am ET) tomorrow regarding the same time period.
 
Equus said:
Spann is extremely reserved and careful with wording; the death toll on 4/27 has left him with a lot of unwarranted self blame that has made him extremely concerned with public messaging during severe events. Almost never uses the V word, so seeing him go with that two days before the event is unsettling. First time I've gotten storm anxiety personally in a very long time
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Yes seeing him so concerned definitely has my anxiety raised. I know that’s not his goal - he’s so careful to be cautious of that - but he’s using very serious language that’s needed but scary.
 
Tennie said:
Here's a thought that I had recently and decided to share regarding this event:

I noticed that this upcoming event will either be bracketed by or occur on several tornado outbreak anniversaries:

First up, today is the 35th anniversary of the tornado outbreak that produced the Hesston, Kansas, F5--I made a post about it over on the "Tornado Anniversaries" thread.

Second, Friday also happens to be the 1st anniversary of the outbreak that was predicted to mainly affect Arkansas, but ended up also notably impacting Ohio as well (to an even larger extent than Arkansas did, in fact!).

And finally, this upcoming Tuesday will be the 100th anniversary of the tornado outbreak that produced the infamous Tri-State Tornado (still the deadliest single tornado in U.S. history to this day).

And given the way things look to be trending with this system, it looks like there could very well end up being yet another tornado day that's at least worthy of note in mid-March.

Now let all that sink in...
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Yep! Not surprising given March and April have long been considered peak months for a good part of the country.
 
So is the STP in the HRRR broken or what? Looks like it also produced a 19 in Oklahoma with the March 3rd event.

IMG_1875.jpeg

That combined with multiple 25 STP days it produced last year tells me it's putting a decimal in the wrong place or weighing something too heavily. Hard for people to take the numbers the NAM is pumping out seriously when it can immediately be shrugged off as just another over hyped day because of what the HRRR is producing.
 
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Grand Poo Bah said:
So is the STP in the HRRR broken or what? Looks like it also produced a 15 in Oklahoma with the March 3rd event.
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That combined with multiple 25 STP days it produced last year tells me it's putting a decimal in the wrong place or weighing something too heavily. Hard for people to take the numbers the NAM is pumping out seriously when it can immediately be shrugged off as just another over hyped day because of what the HRRR is producing.
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I’m pretty sure it’s not that lol
 
A reminder that STP is a composite parameter derived from many variables and values; it's a good tool for picking out severe days in advance when rummaging through modeling runs but one should be well versed in the parameters that make up STP when using it to pick out specifics in the shorter term since mesoscale stuff becomes more important than the composites as we get nearer to the event
 
Equus said:
A reminder that STP is a composite parameter derived from many variables and values; it's a good tool for picking out severe days in advance when rummaging through modeling runs but one should be well versed in the parameters that make up STP when using it to pick out specifics in the shorter term since mesoscale stuff becomes more important than the composites as we get nearer to the event
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100%

STP is good to judge the environment a supercell will have available to it IF It’s in that direct area. It’s just another tool in the toolbox. You have to look at the big picture
 
Grand Poo Bah said:
So is the STP in the HRRR broken or what? Looks like it also produced a 15 in Oklahoma with the March 3rd event.
View attachment 35316

That combined with multiple 25 STP days it produced last year tells me it's putting a decimal in the wrong place or weighing something too heavily. Hard for people to take the numbers the NAM is pumping out seriously when it can immediately be shrugged off as just another over hyped day because of what the HRRR is producing.
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Pretty sure that's a chart of fixed layer STP, which ignores CINH, unlike CIN/effective layer STP.
EDIT: Should also mention that WeatherBell vastly overestimates STP in its charts. I find Pivotal Weather to be the best when it comes to STP plotting/charting.
 
tempostorm said:
How is the ATL area looking anything changed from 2 days ago or about the same? Wasnt sure if were supposed to be having the same severity of storms has MS/AL
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Welcome! Not sure it'll be quite as intense as MS/AL, but it looks to still be a very potent threat for the western 1/3rd of Georgia.
 
When was the last time a severe weather thread achieved 100+ pages before an event had even began? (Not counting he-who-shall-not-be-named)
 
ColdFront said:
100%

STP is good to judge the environment a supercell will have available to it IF It’s in that direct area. It’s just another tool in the toolbox. You have to look at the big picture
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Yep this; a good way to think about STP is, if one were to drop a mature supercell into an environment, STP mostly shows its potential; it doesn't do a perfect job at showing how we actually develop and evolve a supercell in the environment, or even if the environment specifically supports sustained discrete supercell activity. just the potential that a supercell would find itself having at a specific point in time.
 
Grand Poo Bah said:
So is the STP in the HRRR broken or what? Looks like it also produced a 15 in Oklahoma with the March 3rd event.
View attachment 35316

That combined with multiple 25 STP days it produced last year tells me it's putting a decimal in the wrong place or weighing something too heavily. Hard for people to take the numbers the NAM is pumping out seriously when it can immediately be shrugged off as just another over hyped day because of what the HRRR is producing.
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STP isn't actually computed by the HRRR (here are the variables generated natively by HRRR). That's got to be an issue with WeatherBell.

The formula for STP is here: STP. If I had to take a wild guess, they're not setting the mlLCL term to 1 when the mlLCL is < 1000m.
 
:/.Hello all, I am new to East Tennessee but not new to weather watching. My dad used to fly reconnaissance out of Belle Chasse LA. Been through a few hurricanes and tornadoes. Used to watch the water spouts from Lake Pontchartrain when there was an amusement park there! Watching this current systems of severe storms. My husband is not taking this very seriously, at least not as seriously as I am. Looks like east TN/Knoxville area so far is not in a bulls eye, but still pretty severe weather/thunderstorms. Am I over worried?
 
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