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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/14-3/16

No one said the situation wasn’t serious. No one is downplaying. Models are about in their own echelon. We do need to take this into account because this can POTENTIALLY be a violent system. 5/20/19 is a great example of this, look at the first couple storms to take off and it will give you an idea how the day will go.
 
Grand Poo Bah said:
Under-conveying the seriousness of this situation because "that's just not how we do things" is a bureaucratic response to a pressing need.
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“that's just not how we do things”

The thing is there’s a legitimate reason why it’s like that.

When it comes to SVR risk, the word to key on in is “risk”, which is a confidence based metric.

A high risk at day 3 is practically impossible because there’s no feasible way to actually be that certain all hell will break loose.

There’s simply to much uncertainty and especially with the fact that meteorology in general is an incomplete science to justify a high risk that far out and cause widespread panic for something that can easily downtrend into a none event.
 
I understand that there's still time, though perhaps not as much as we'd like, for things to take a downward trend. But personally, the flashbacks have been hitting hard tonight. Some of the historical events being referenced as analogs are etched into my mind in indelible ink. You don’t forget the sights, the sounds, the way the air smelled afterwards. The memories linger.

Here's to hoping that things take a turn for the better.
 
Grand Poo Bah said:
I didn't mean to strike a political chord with my choice of phrasing. I think NOAA and the NWS are invaluable and I hate seeing them gutted. I'm extremely pro science, truth, and reason if that tells you anything.

Edit: All i'm trying to say, is it's a reasonable conversation to consider changing the day 3 risk from moderate to high.
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There is absolutely no need to go high risk on day 3. We rarely have the confidence to go high risk the morning of, let alone 3 days in advanced.
 
Grand Poo Bah said:
The last event never stood a chance to do what this event is projected to do. Not even at its highest projected potential. When was the last time the models showed something like this 3 days out?
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I understand your frustration and your intent. The last event never had a chance to do what its highest potential could be. While yes it’s an absurd amount of energy with this system. Nobody is saying “it needs to be a high risk day 3.” We’re simply going by what we see and that how it should be for the public, for others in this thread.
 
let’s keep the thread on track. this is a potentially massive event for a lot of people, but even these scenarios don’t always pan out and there’s always fail modes that can gum up a prime setup.

it’s for that very reason messaging is escalated in lockstep with confidence and even then it’s still wrong at times.
 
Brice W said:
I understand your frustration and your intent. The last event never had a chance to do what its highest potential could be. While yes it’s an absurd amount of energy with this system. Nobody is saying “it needs to be a high risk day 3.” We’re simply going by what we see and that how it should be for the public, for others in this thread.
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We forecasting, we’re not saying what it WILL be. Just simply stating what it COULD be. And given how significant this event COULD be. It’s best to play it by how we see it and have conversations and opinions about what we think. Not saying “they should change it to a day 3 high risk.”
 
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