Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/14-3/16

[UpperLevelLOL]

The HRW FV3 Supercell printer is most definitely turned on. Shows supercells Friday night in IL/KY/IN and even down into TN/MS/AL and has a clutter-free MS/AL by the time the run ends at 12z Saturday.

View attachment 35245

Edit: Also has 2000 j/kg of SBCAPE across a lot of MS by the time the model runs ends at 12z Saturday, which is more than most models

Ho man, that is a string of pearls overnight, yikes

 

[Maxis_s]

Guys? Where's the morning convection?

 

[jiharris0220]

Energy helicity index values up to 8 in a large area now on the NAM, here’s a sounding taken in central Mississippi 4pm.

First time I’m seeing helicity values this high regarding the setup, this combined with 2000+ cape values it’s no surprise the hodograph looks like that.

 

[NorthGaWeather]

There is higher end potential across WC/NC Georgia for this event. IF the setup holds, I’m confident we’ll see tornadic supercells maintain themselves, in at worst a broken line, well into the late evening hours. Very concerned about this.

 

[brianc33710]

I'm a Toronto Maple Leafs fan, since the late 90s actually. I listen to the games on a YT channel, which is also airing the SEC BB Tourney. I went on the page where the channel 1st announced Tourney coverage & said something about the storms. We play the Panthers tomorrow night so I know I'll get to warn everyone then. EDIT Has AL had an EF4 since Lee Co Mar '19?

 

[Maxis_s]

Energy helicity index values up to 8 in a large area now on the NAM, here’s a sounding taken in central Mississippi 4pm.

First time I’m seeing helicity values this high regarding the setup, this combined with 2000+ cape values it’s no surprise the hodograph looks like that.
View attachment 35248

Remember when moisture depth was a limiting factor? Because it sure isn't now.

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

What is so scary about violent tornadoes is once they hit about mid to high-end EF4+ intensity surviving above ground becomes much more difficult than being in a basement or an underground shelter.

Community storm shelters should be a thing. Especially in poor communities with dense or underdeveloped housing. The shelter doesn't even have to be anything newly constructed. Institutional buildings are some of the strongest structures out there. Just make them available to the public for storms like these (if they aren't already).

 

[Clancy]

There is higher end potential across WC/NC Georgia for this event. IF the setup holds, I’m confident we’ll see tornadic supercells maintain themselves, in at worst a broken line, well into the late evening hours. Very concerned about this.

Agree, unfortunately. Western 1/3rd of Georgia (at least) may see a uniquely dangerous nocturnal tornado event.

 

[Kds86z]

Yep. MS is the #1 most dangerous state to live in for tornadoes. Highest fatalities. I saw the statistical map.

Wish I still had it . But it rated each state based off of poverty levels/income and the way homes are built. I do remember MS was #1.

 

[Shakespeare 2016]

Most homes in the mid-south don't have basements either, at least in my neck of the woods.

Yeah, that is totally scary.

 

[Shakespeare 2016]

Community storm shelters should be a thing. Especially in poor communities with dense or underdeveloped housing. The shelter doesn't even have to be anything newly constructed. Institutional buildings are some of the strongest structures out there. Just make them available to the public for storms like these (if they aren't already).

I totally agree.

 

[Clancy]

Community storm shelters should be a thing. Especially in poor communities with dense or underdeveloped housing. The shelter doesn't even have to be anything newly constructed. Institutional buildings are some of the strongest structures out there. Just make them available to the public for storms like these (if they aren't already).

I'm sure it's not consistent throughout the area, but quite a few places in MS and AL have done a good job with providing community shelters. Would definitely like to see more places follow through.

 

[Kds86z]

I'm sure it's not consistent throughout the area, but quite a few places in MS and AL have done a good job with providing community shelters. Would definitely like to see more places follow through.

Since 4/27 I am sure??

 

[Brice W]

Remember when moisture depth was a limiting factor? Because it sure isn't now.

Haven’t seen you post in a bit, I love the energy you have, welcome back.

 

[MMWX]

Yeah, that is totally scary.

If I remember correctly, it's something about the soil here that can't support them.

The only homes with "basements" I know of are homes built on a hill.

I don't have a basement.

 

[Maxis_s]

Haven’t seen you post in a bit, I love the energy you have, welcome back.

 

[jiharris0220]

This sounding was also taken in central Mississippi but at 7pm, EHI values exceeding 10 now due to helicity exceeding 700s^2s^-2 with cape values far exceeding 2000j/kg.

Notice the orientation of the storm slinky, I’ve only seen that in upper echelon setups, and it indicates an extreme amount of streamwise vorticity.

These supercells will be taking in vorticity from the background environment very efficiently.

 

[Clancy]

If I remember correctly, it's something about the soil here that can't support them.

The only homes with "basements" I know of are homes built on a hill.

I don't have a basement.

I'm not sure about further north, but all across the Coastal Plain in the Gulf and Atlantic states, the soil is less conducive to having basements built into it.

 

[andyhb]

West Tennessee look like u Andy. Still good threat for tornadoes night?

May have issues on Friday night, to be determined.

 

[Maxis_s]

Anyone knows when the CSU-MLP does its Day 3 00Z init?