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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/14-3/16

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KCweatherboy said:
Dew points don't have to be above 60 degrees for there to be problems. There are plenty of strong and even violent tornadoes such as the Winterset, Iowa EF4 that have occurred with dewpoints under 60. Due to the presence of cold air aloft, there is plenty of CAPE available in these areas with lower than 60s dewpoints which is more than enough for storms to work with.

That's why I've been concerned with this northern area too, because if models are under-forecasting dewpoints and moisture depth even a little bit, there's plenty of energy for storms to work with so they won't get ripped apart by the shear.
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That's been my concern here. Can't rule out a day-of uptrend a la 3/31/2023. Still though, mid-50s dews should be plenty for an intense QLCS with embedded spinups Friday evening for the northern mode given the kinematics in play.
 
So the 18z Euro....

The dynamics are more muted than on the GFS and NAM. Probably some of its biases (it's usually more muted).

But look at this structure! Even though it's not a CAM, it's trying so hard to resolve discrete supercells forming early on Saturday and a huge mass of discrete/semi-discrete/linear modes across AL as the day progresses. It'd probably be pretty nasty if this structure happened.



floop-ecmwf_full-2025031218.prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp.us_se.gif
 
wx_guy said:
So the 18z Euro....

The dynamics are more muted than on the GFS and NAM. Probably some of its biases (it's usually more muted).

But look at this structure! Even though it's not a CAM, it's trying so hard to resolve discrete supercells forming early on Saturday and a huge mass of discrete/semi-discrete/linear modes across AL as the day progresses. It'd probably be pretty nasty if this structure happened.



View attachment 35223
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You can really see the Euro’s EML overturning issues along with the bloated updraft initiations.

And yet, even despite that, there’s still a largely discrete mode being modeled.

Not good.
 
It's been a minute since I've posted. Am I correct in avoiding the hype train for Friday/Saturday so far? My understanding is that fail modes can be present, especially on Saturday. CC did point out it could also swing the other direction as well though.

I remember thinking a few days were going to be bigger days last year, but then those only produced a small number of tornadoes each. The OK HIGH Risk (had a single EF4, but seemingly underperformed otherwise) and Ohio Valley MDT Risk keep me grounded right now.

OTOH, I remember 3/31/23 and the absolute amazement I had with the amount of tornadoes. From when I heard Little Rock was being hit to when I went to bed around 1AM, I believe it was nonstop.
 
Cood101 said:
It's been a minute since I've posted. Am I correct in avoiding the hype train for Friday/Saturday so far? My understanding is that fail modes can be present, especially on Saturday. CC did point out it could also swing the other direction as well though.

I remember thinking a few days were going to be bigger days last year, but then those only produced a small number of tornadoes each. The OK HIGH Risk (had a single EF4, but seemingly underperformed otherwise) and Ohio Valley MDT Risk keep me grounded right now.

OTOH, I remember 3/31/23 and the absolute amazement I had with the amount of tornadoes. From when I heard Little Rock was being hit to when I went to bed around 1AM, I believe it was nonstop.
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While there are definitely a number of things that remain uncertain, and it could change, I'd argue that the floor for this event doesn't currently appear to be that low, and the ceiling is high. Twitter hype trains or whatever are definitely not a useful thing to buy into, but numerous forecast and broadcast Mets are anticipating the possibility of a high-end event.
 
wx_guy said:
So the 18z Euro....

The dynamics are more muted than on the GFS and NAM. Probably some of its biases (it's usually more muted).

But look at this structure! Even though it's not a CAM, it's trying so hard to resolve discrete supercells forming early on Saturday and a huge mass of discrete/semi-discrete/linear modes across AL as the day progresses. It'd probably be pretty nasty if this structure happened.



View attachment 35223
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So this comes through my area at like 1am Sunday? Great. I guess I wont be going to sleep OR to Church on Sunday… SMH
 
cincywx said:
dualpol has also made it easier to detect weaker tornadoes compared to the pre-dualpol era, which was as recent as 15 years ago.
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Agreed, this is a big difference since they're much easier to see with CC on radar. I'd wager 12/15/21 wouldn't have near the amount of reported tornadoes without CC and better surveying methods as mentioned. The other 3 2020s events would likely be lower without those 2 things as well.
 
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