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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/14-3/16

ColdFront said:
No but posting “ZOMG V BAD” after every sounding or saying a region “has resigned itself to existence” joking or not sucks as a contribution.

If you were joking then it’s even worse. Again, we have people on this board from Mississippi, and we have some that were personally impacted on 4/27/11. It’s one thing to hype events, but joking or whatever you’re doing about this isn’t a good look.

Again, I’m not trying to come across as harsh because as I said, you’re on the younger side. But just keep that in mind when you are posting about some of the people on here.
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I agree.
 
Just watch, wait and see; that's what I say.

I'm also on the younger side, but I know what to watch for when it come to severe weather for the most part.
 
Fox Lol GIF by SkinnyPop
 
Clancy said:
Relatively few changes to the D3 at 1930. Slight southward expansion which puts more of MS/AL in the ENH.
View attachment 35184
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The latest SPC Day 3 update definitely gives the hint at upgrade is coming. Reason they didn't right away is probably due to uncertainty in overall storm mode and other mesoscale factors
 
D3 disco

...Most of the area from the mid MO Valley into the TN Valley...
A classic, progressive deep-layer cyclone will interact with a
increasingly unstable air mass to produce widespread wind damage
beginning near the KS/MO and OK/AR borders during early afternoon,
and expanding northeast across much of MO, IA, IL, IN, western KY
and parts of western TN through evening. Not only will extreme wind
field favor damaging winds, but profiles will also favor supercells
capable of fast-moving tornadoes, whether a broken line or in QLCS
fashion along surging outflows. The steep lapse rates and rapid
changes overall will also support strong tornado potential
interspersed with the damaging wind area. Last, cells will also
produce hail over northern areas where temperatures aloft are cold.
...MS/AL/TN Overnight...
As the upper wave departs to the north, mid to perhaps upper 60s F
dewpoints will surge north across MS, western AL and the western FL
Panhandle during the evening and overnight. As mentioned, height
falls will be maintained due to the secondary wave moving into TX.
The result will be a persistent 50-60 kt low-level jet beneath 60 kt
midlevel southwesterlies, and increasing boundary-layer moisture.
This regime is likely to support scattered thunderstorms after 06Z,
and the overall environment conditionally supports strong tornadoes.
The severe risk will only increase into Saturday/D4. As such, have
extended the Enhanced Risk farther south across MS and western AL.
 
JPWX said:
The latest SPC Day 3 update definitely gives the hint at upgrade is coming. Reason they didn't right away is probably due to uncertainty in overall storm mode and other mesoscale factors
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D2 Mod wouldn't be surprising, but the color doesn't really matter, does it?
 
Clancy said:
Also, guess I glossed over this while reading the mid-range disco by Leitman this morning, but explicit mention of a severe outbreak at the beginning of the disco. I don't have any specific memory of seeing that for mid-range forecasts in recent years in the Southeast, does anyone remember the last time we had that?
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I have seen this before but it has been a while and I expect future outlooks for this time period to start with “Outbreak LIKELY” instead of “possible”. Starting tomorrow.

Also have to be mindful of the language they use in their outlooks/watches:

-A couple/a few/some/several/numerous
-Possible/likely
 
KevinH said:
I have seen this before but it has been a while and I expect future outlooks for this time period to start with “Outbreak LIKELY” instead of “possible”. Starting tomorrow.

Also have to be mindful of the language they use in their outlooks/watches:

-A couple/a few/some/several/numerous
-Possible/likely
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Yeah, those word choices are usually fairly calculated.
 
Wind Driven Coconut said:
The new d3 discussion really emphasizes the cumulative nature of this potential outbreak. The focus has been Saturday, but if there are multiple tornadoes Friday, and then additional overnight, collectively this could be a very significant impact.
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I really hope that the threats hit different places and don't mow over the same. Don't need the infrastructural challenges.
 
Wind Driven Coconut said:
The new d3 discussion really emphasizes the cumulative nature of this potential outbreak. The focus has been Saturday, but if there are multiple tornadoes Friday, and then additional overnight, collectively this could be a very significant impact.
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AGREE 100 percent
 
cg9450 said:
D2 Mod wouldn't be surprising, but the color doesn't really matter, does it?
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No not really. This brings up a good point though that needs to be said. Severe storms can and do happen outside of the highest risk zone.
 
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