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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/14-3/16

cg9450 said:
I’m assuming the soundings in the morning of Friday/sat will confirm the EML?
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Yes, but given where the mid-level flow is originating from and the substantial drought conditions there, that would have to completely change on a large-scale level in order to not be there. That's something we can have high confidence in now without waiting on seeing it in real-time just based on the concept that wind moves air masses around.
 
Fred Gossage said:
Yes, but given where the mid-level flow is originating from and the substantial drought conditions there, that would have to completely change on a large-scale level in order to not be there. That's something we can have high confidence in now without waiting on seeing it in real-time just based on the concept that wind moves air masses around.
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So now it’s a cap question, oof.
 
cg9450 said:
So now it’s a cap question, oof.
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You'll never see a significant tornado event in your life without an EML overtop the warm sector. That provides the steep mid-level lapse rates which is the mid/upper tropospheric part of the instability profile, and it helps weed out weaker updrafts.
 
Fred Gossage said:
You'll never see a significant tornado event in your life without an EML overtop the warm sector. That provides the steep mid-level lapse rates which is the mid/upper tropospheric part of the instability profile, and it helps weed out weaker updrafts.
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Thanks for the insights, Fred! :)
 
00z GFS continues to suggest a dangerous scenario for MS and AL on Saturday, even upticked a bit later in the afternoon compared to earlier. It is trying to depict a band of pre-frontal cells amidst 1500-2500 J/kg CAPE and 400+ m2/s2 ESRH.
 
Middle of Alabama looking fully primed now. What is that sheer?!

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Southern Mississippi is.... intense. DCAPE is skyrocketing. Does being so close to the ocean skew numbers a bit or is this as bad as it looks?

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Central Mississippi trading off a lot of Sheer and a little helicity for more MU and SB CAPE

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First time I have bought into an event enough to comment in about a year. I think Friday night could be a sneaky QLCS event. But Saturday looks down right wild. One thing that has stuck out to me over the last couple of years of focusing on these higher end outbreaks, is the Northern part of the risk area popping in the final 24-48 hours on CAMs. I think that is something to watch. But definitely concerned for my friends on here in Alabama, E MS, Southern TN on Saturday.
 
I hope my comment this afternoon wasn't interpreted as drawing similarities between this system and 04/27/2011. The SRH was 600+ m2/s2 in 2011. We aren't touching that currently. Considering it's the variable which fuels rotation, i'd say that's a pretty major difference between the two. Although CAPE is equally high in this system, it isn't nearly as widespread as and abundant as 2011. If 2500 CAPE is high octane gasoline, 2011 had a full tank, and 2025 has a half tank.

Once again, I'm unqualified to draw comparisons, but if I contributed to the hype we were seeing earlier, I want to equally contribute to the level headed reasoning we need now.
 
andyhb said:
00z GFS continues to suggest a dangerous scenario for MS and AL on Saturday, even upticked a bit later in the afternoon compared to earlier. It is trying to depict a band of pre-frontal cells amidst 1500-2500 J/kg CAPE and 400+ m2/s2 ESRH.
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I'm just as concerned about near the effective warm front and ahead of the mesolow as I am the open warm sector. I really don't like that the GFS is getting 64-65 dewpoints as far north as Columbia, TN in the afternoon now.
 
Grand Poo Bah said:
I hope my comment this afternoon wasn't interpreted as drawing similarities between this system and 04/27/2011. The SRH was 600+ m2/s2 in 2011. We aren't touching that currently. Considering it's the variable which fuels rotation, i'd say that's a pretty major difference between the two. Although CAPE is equally high in this system, it isn't nearly as widespread as and abundant as 2011. If 2500 CAPE is high octane gasoline, 2011 had a full tank, and 2025 has a half tank.

Once again, I'm unqualified to draw comparisons, but if I contributed to the hype we were seeing earlier, I want to equally contribute to the level headed reasoning we need now.
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2011 will be mentioned until something bigger happens. I don't fault any hobbyist for bringing it up in forums like this for comparisons sake (obviously you won't be taken serious if you compare it on a regular basis, personally I won't believe in another 2011 until I see it). I think the only issue is when those comparisons are conveyed to the general public.

This is a forum of fellow hobbyists, compare away. I don't like pretending we all wouldn't love to be apart of another non-deadly version of April 2011. I don't see the issue here. There's a huge population of people who love watching horror movies, murder documentaries, etc. It doesn't mean they actually want people to die. It's just something that gets the adrenaline going.
 
OhOkayThen said:
2011 will be mentioned until something bigger happens. I don't fault any hobbyist for bringing it up in forums like this for comparisons sake. I think the only issue is when those comparisons are conveyed to the general public.

This is a forum of fellow hobbyists, compare away. I don't like pretending we all wouldn't love to be apart of another non-deadly version of April 2011. I don't see the issue here. There's a huge population of people who love watching horror movies, murder documentaries, etc. It doesn't mean they actually want people to die. It's just something that gets the adrenaline going.
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I think it's an interesting comparison for getting a sense of how current systems stack up, but then it gets misinterpreted and miscommunicated until people are drawing them as equals with no real basis. I 100% agree with the sentiment that it can erode public trust, and it's good Spann addressed it in his last Tweet.

Will this storm be as bad as 2011? Hell no. However, It could be 60% or 70% as powerful as that system was, and still cause immense destruction. Every storm doesn't have to be the worst storm ever.

Edit: Plus, whether they're the worst case or the best case scenario almost exclusively depends on what they hit. We've seen extremely powerful systems labelled as "busts" by weather weenies simply because all the strongest tornadoes stayed in empty fields.
 
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