• Welcome to TalkWeather!
    We see you lurking around TalkWeather! Take the extra step and join us today to view attachments, see less ads and maybe even join the discussion.
    CLICK TO JOIN TALKWEATHER

Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/14-3/16

0z NAM takes us to the morning of the event (7 AM CDT, if I did the math right), and even early in the morning, the chances of severe weather are there in Mississippi especially, but also western AL. With daytime heating, I can only assume this will indeed be a not so good situation.
 
Clancy said:
Significantly weaker than GFS for certain, but not normal NAM-level weak. Combine that with its cold bias and this still looks pretty concerning. Then again, NAM at the end of its range is about as reliable as me rolling out of bed at the right time in the morning, so probably not too wise to read deeply into it one way or the other.
Click to expand...
LOL! I was about to say Clancy, the NAM at 12z on Saturday shows most of Mississippi in 60+ dews and a narrow instability tongue but the majority of Alabama with 50s dews. Instead of having that moisture just sitting overnight like the euro and GFS. However, it’s at the end of its range and that thing always runs cold
 
ColdFront said:
LOL! I was about to say Clancy, the NAM at 12z on Saturday shows most of Mississippi in 60+ dews and a narrow instability tongue but the majority of Alabama with 50s dews. Instead of having that moisture just sitting overnight like the euro and GFS. However, it’s at the end of its range and that thing always runs cold
Click to expand...
NAM just doesn't get as excited as the other models, and hey, that's okay, we all go our own pace :)
 
Clancy said:
Significantly weaker than GFS for certain, but not normal NAM-level weak. Combine that with its cold bias and this still looks pretty concerning. Then again, NAM at the end of its range is about as reliable as me rolling out of bed at the right time in the morning, so probably not too wise to read deeply into it one way or the other.
Click to expand...
I still need to familiarize myself with certain model biases. A couple of cherry picked NAM soundings still showed the necessary ingredients for a couple of tornadoes, but definitely shows a lower end event.
 
Last edited:
TornadoFan17 said:
I still need to familiarize itself with certain model biases. A couple of cherry picked NAM sounding still showed the necessary ingredients for a couple of tornadoes, but definitely shows a lower end event.
Click to expand...
Yeah, definitely don't discount it off the bat, but it tends to be pretty bad at capturing thermos, especially further out. I've also seen it just give up on depicting warm sectors the day-of more than a few times.
 
The 00z NAM has most of MS and AL staying in the mid/upper 60s for highs on Friday afternoon in a clean warm sector with no rain contamination, breezy SSE surface winds, and several substantial breaks in the cloud cover for sunshine. Those areas will likely be cruising near 80 not only then, but many of them were near there today. The NAM can be instantly and automatically thrown out for now.
 
The main concern with the Euro is that it is likely incorrectly overturning its EML and capping and over-convecting because of it. It is pulling straight from the northern Mexican plateau in the mid-levels, but yet it completely ignores its own capping inversion from that and completely decimates its lapse rates and overturns the atmosphere in what should be the shortwave subsident area behind the first shortwave trough and before the exit region of the next trough arrives. It's had a big tendency to incorrectly do this a lot of times with Southeast events for a good 3+ years now.
 
Fred Gossage said:
The main concern with the Euro is that it is likely incorrectly overturning its EML and capping and over-convecting because of it. It is pulling straight from the northern Mexican plateau in the mid-levels, but yet it completely ignores its own capping inversion from that and completely decimates its lapse rates and overturns the atmosphere in what should be the shortwave subsident area behind the first shortwave trough and before the exit region of the next trough arrives. It's had a big tendency to incorrectly do this a lot of times with Southeast events for a good 3+ years now.
Click to expand...
I’m assuming the soundings in the morning of Friday/sat will confirm the EML?
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top