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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/14-3/16

While the convective evolution will almost certainly look quite different and the synoptics are definitely not the same, I think a fairly reasonable analog to give some folks an idea when it comes to trying to visualize the possible broad structural appearance of Saturday's convection may be March 25, 2021. Some batches of earlier-day severe storms that make way for additional, mixed-mode, tornado-producing supercells and embedded circulations. Again, not the same setup by any means, but 3/25 saw inundation of much of AL with favorable parameters early in the day that continued into the night.
 
wx_guy said:
Ouch. This is the same guy that does the StormNet I look at a lot. The MMFS is a machine learning AI model. Not a good look!
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I haven't followed MMFS too closely, though I know it was really popular when it first came out and made big waves in the weather community. I assume it maintains a fairly good track record?
 
Clancy said:
While the convective evolution will almost certainly look quite different and the synoptics are definitely not the same, I think a fairly reasonable analog to give some folks an idea when it comes to trying to visualize the possible broad structural appearance of Saturday's convection may be March 25, 2021. Some batches of earlier-day severe storms that make way for additional, mixed-mode, tornado-producing supercells and embedded circulations. Again, not the same setup by any means, but 3/25 saw inundation of much of AL with favorable parameters early in the day that continued into the night.
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Another thing that doesn’t get talked about is flooding. Lots and lots of rain will be present with this system, I’d hate to be under a flash flood emergency on top of a tornado emergency.
 
Clancy said:
I haven't followed MMFS too closely, though I know it was really popular when it first came out and made big waves in the weather community. I assume it maintains a fairly good track record?
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It's about the same hit-miss-iness of the other models, to be totally fair, but it is able to pick out on structures a lot better than the global models. Like you see a few long-track discrete supercells on this.
 
Brice W said:
Another thing that doesn’t get talked about is flooding. Lots and lots of rain will be present with this system, I’d hate to be under a flash flood emergency on top of a tornado emergency.
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Yeah. Can't remember the year but in one of Georgia's major floods we had a tornado warning get issued while we were packing sandbags and placing them in front of my grandmother's garage. It's a horrible combo.
 
Cyclonic Paracosm said:
memory is money maker, but that day had historic floods cuz of training or storms, did not word that right
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I really don’t recall any flooding on 4/27/11. The system in the south was so subtly forced that there wasn’t a huge linear line that came through after the cells. Now the north had some heavy rains, but it wasn’t even close to historic
 
Cyclonic Paracosm said:
one of 4/27/11's forgotten things was the historic flooding that occurred coz the system moved at like 2mph
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I think you have 4/27 confused with another outbreak. The system did not move slowly. There were multiple rounds of storms, but the storms were not moving slowly and I also don't remember any historic flooding. At all.
 
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