So they have really uptrended?That’s a understatement
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So they have really uptrended?That’s a understatement
I think more so, that there's more confidence in the original solution that models had been hinting at off and on and portraying the past 3 days or so with the secondary low. Moisture has up ticked that's for sure (at least across Alabama) and so has shear, and still may uptick more, given the proximity to the secondary low as we get into mesoscale models.So they have really uptrended?
Not asking for over moderation - but a lot of posts seem to be young guys rooting for bad weather who don’t know what they are talking about, but speaking with an air of authority that is troubling given that this isn’t a sports forum. The number of barely severe events with people constantly saying certain storms are about to be warned, or there’s a tornado on the ground, or there’s a near certainty of X is high. That isn’t helpful to a forum. People should feel free to ask questions and learn, but just imho, people who speak with authority who have no idea what they are talking about need to be corrected and encouraged to learn more.You're welcome to start your own weather forum.
An overmoderated forum sucks.
Now, back to your regularly schedule Spring severe season.
Welcome!I've been lurking here for a while but just officially joined because this seems like a good meeting place of actual, knowledgeable people and amateur weenies like myself. A breath of fresh air compared to the click-driven overhyping on other forms of social media. Appreciate the back and forth here and the no-nonsense reading of models rather than overhyping a model run for 9 days from now (I've already seen people hyping up the Sunday 3/23 solution from GFS)
Welcome, I’ll admit this place certainly has its ups and downs as well, but compared to other places this is an upper class mall while most other social media sites are the shady drugstores that may or may not be selling illegal merchandise.I've been lurking here for a while but just officially joined because this seems like a good meeting place of actual, knowledgeable people and amateur weenies like myself. A breath of fresh air compared to the click-driven overhyping on other forms of social media. Appreciate the back and forth here and the no-nonsense reading of models rather than overhyping a model run for 9 days from now (I've already seen people hyping up the Sunday 3/23 solution from GFS)
Welcome! I hope you enjoy this place!I've been lurking here for a while but just officially joined because this seems like a good meeting place of actual, knowledgeable people and amateur weenies like myself. A breath of fresh air compared to the click-driven overhyping on other forms of social media. Appreciate the back and forth here and the no-nonsense reading of models rather than overhyping a model run for 9 days from now (I've already seen people hyping up the Sunday 3/23 solution from GFS)
Hey now, we all love a little illegal merchandise every once in a while /sWelcome, I’ll admit this place certainly has its ups and downs as well, but compared to other places this is an upper class mall while most other social media sites are the shady drugstores that may or may not be selling illegal merchandise.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't the longwave broad nature of this trough make it more difficult for it to become de-amplified or too amplified since any changes would have to occur within the larger structure of the trough? I could see where the shortwave on Friday becomes too amplified, but I'm having a more difficult time seeing how that could happen on Saturday.Main trends to be look for will be:
- The emergence of a more prominent shortwave. Often that's something that can become apparent in these longer wavelength troughs at shorter ranges, I recall this happening in the 12/10 outbreak. An embedded shortwave or speed max would strengthen the low level wind fields which pretty much improves the environment all round.
-The sub-tropical jet nosing too much to the north, which may limit thermodynamics especially with the low-level lapse rates
-Trough either de-amplifying or becoming too amplified both of which could reduce the severe threat
-Trough trending a little north which could expand the extent of the warm sector northwards
As we get into the D1-D3 range is obviously when the smaller scale details which could make or break the setup become apparent. Still think its a wait and see game because who knows the parameter space and synoptics will be the same by the time we get to Saturday, though for a local forecaster perspective increasing awareness early is obviously important.
.LONG TERM...
(Friday morning through next Monday)
Issued at 152 PM EDT Tue Mar 11 2025
- Severe thunderstorm concerns remain in place from Saturday
into Sunday with all modes of severe weather possible.
- A heavy rainfall and flash flooding threat could also
accompany this weekend system.
Moisture will be advecting northward into the area at the start of
the forecast period Friday as a low pressure system deepens over
and begins to lift northeastward across the Central Plains. By
Saturday morning, this increasingly stacked system will be situated
over the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region, with the associated
surface cold front draped across the Mississippi Valley. By Saturday
afternoon and evening, an additional surface low looks to initiate
and lift northward across the Tennessee Valley. While some showers
and embedded thunderstorms may be ongoing in portions of north
Georgia Saturday morning amid isentropic lift, additional convective
development will develop to our west on Saturday as the surface cold
front approaches.
The severe risk then looks to be highest from late Saturday into
Sunday as these storms push into the state. While the most favorable
parameter space may exist to our west where afternoon instability
will be highest, a very strong LLJ (45-55+ kts at 850 mb) and
resultant impressive 0-1 km SRH would maintain an ongoing
(potentially significant) severe threat. As mentioned in earlier
discussions, some uncertainty remains at this juncture regarding the
thermodynamic environment, particularly given the potential local
timing being Saturday night into early Sunday being some degree of a
limiting factor. Even so, NBM mean SBCAPE in excess of 500 J/kg
Saturday evening and still on the order of 200-500 J/kg overnight
would still be supportive of a tornado and damaging wind threat
given aforementioned very favorable shear parameters. If higher
instability is realized, then this threat would be further
maximized. All this is to say, the potential for a significant
severe event remains in play from Saturday evening into at least
early Sunday before the front shifts eastward on Sunday. This threat
remains highlighted by the continued Day 5 (Saturday) 30% risk area
from SPC and lingering 15% risk area for Day 6 (Sunday).
Additionally, alongside the severe risk, hydrologic concerns will
also be on the increase with this system. Multiple rounds of
convection would lead to training potential, particularly across
north Georgia from Saturday through early Sunday. A Day 5 "Slight"
risk for excessive rainfall is already in place by WPC across north
Georgia to highlight this risk.
Ratcheting down as in more specific?The AlabamaWX blog is ratcheting down there wording some. View attachment 35037
Yess late Friday night into early SaturdayDo these soundings indicate Arkansas could get in on the action Saturday as well, or am I missing something? Forgive me, I've been trying to get my head wrapped around soundings for a while now, and this system seems like the perfect one to help with it.
View attachment 35038
View attachment 35039