Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/14-3/16

[wx_guy]

The fickle nature of many on here, ugh! lol For what it's worth, I read through most of the thread for April 27, 2011, and in the days leading up to it, there were several questions made about the moisture availability and whatnot also.

 

[Clancy]

We are hungry, and Trey delivers.

 

[MichelleH]

The fickle nature of many on here, ugh! lol For what it's worth, I read through most of the thread for April 27, 2011, and in the days leading up to it, there were several questions made about the moisture availability and whatnot also.

Yes, yes there were.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

We are hungry, and Trey delivers.

My friend from work @stallions3peat told me he watched the spann weather Xtreme video for this afternoon and spann dismissed the GFS solution and is going with the EURO as the more likely with the secondary low

 

[Bulkshear]

My friend from work @stallions3peat told me he watched the spann weather Xtreme video for this afternoon and spann dismissed the GFS solution and is going with the EURO as the more likely with the secondary low

I agree with Spann on this idea. That’s bad news unfortunately

 

[Mrgolfman7070]

Does anyone know where I can pull up skew t charts for the Memphis tn area and or jackson tn?

 

[ColdFront]

My friend from work @stallions3peat told me he watched the spann weather Xtreme video for this afternoon and spann dismissed the GFS solution and is going with the EURO as the more likely with the secondary low

He did. 6:35 timestamp.

 

[Austin Dawg]

He did. 6:35 timestamp.

When this guy talks, I start to listen. At this stage, I think we need to wait until later in the week to start pulling the panic buttons, but it does not look good.

 

[Clancy]

When this guy talks, I start to listen. At this stage, I think we need to wait until later in the week to start pulling the panic buttons, but it does not look good.

Indeed, Spann is very judicious when it comes to his language around severe events, no doubt heavily influenced by aftershocks of April 27, so when he is mentioning severe weather at extended range, it's definitely time for folks to pay attention.

 

[kcyalater]

spann don’t play no games. i’m a bit surprised he’s mentioning this prior to wednesday and cam resolution

 

[GA Stormchaser]

Will be interesting to hear the crew on Weatherbrains (I think it’s tonight )

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Mid to upper 60s dewpoints in central Alabama Saturday on the 18z GFS is really good. Ooo boy if you have a low pressure system breathing down the neck of Alabama passing to its northwest in Saturdays environment as well.

This sounding is over BHAM at 21z Saturday. Your still looking at a impressive sickle hodograph.

 

[NorthGaWeather]

Impressive streamwise vorticity in that sounding.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

18z euro looks like it slowed things down a bit. *(Wait NVM that's the 12z my bad.)*

Still waiting on 18z

 

[KevinH]

Mid to upper 60s dewpoints in central Alabama Saturday on the 18z GFS is really good. Ooo boy if you have a low pressure system breathing down the neck of Alabama passing to its northwest in Saturdays environment as well.

This sounding is over BHAM at 21z Saturday. Your still looking at an impressive sickle hodograph. View attachment 34941

This looks to be about 5pm ET. Still wondering about before and after this as it relates to the highest threat for this area. The waiting game continues.

Me on this thread:

 

[andyhb]

The way that secondary wave is evolving for Saturday now definitely gives me some concern, particularly if it comes in ever so slightly further north. Should a secondary surface low form further south, that would mean a dramatic amplification of the low level jet, and depending on how much convection stunts the northward progression of the high theta-e air, it could set the stage for a regional significant severe weather event across LA, MS, AL, and possibly into GA.

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

The way that secondary wave is evolving for Saturday now definitely gives me some concern, particularly if it comes in ever so slightly further north. Should a secondary surface low form further south, that would mean a dramatic amplification of the low level jet, and depending on how much convection stunts the northward progression of the high theta-e air, it could set the stage for a regional significant severe weather event across LA, MS, AL, and possibly into GA.

ook, noted. lets hope that doesn't occur

 

[KevinH]

Indeed, Spann is very judicious when it comes to his language around severe events, no doubt heavily influenced by aftershocks of April 27, so when he is mentioning severe weather at extended range, it's definitely time for folks to pay attention.

JUST A SECOND!!!!!!!!!

I just watched that video of Spann from earlier today and something he said triggered a memory.

I remember watching a video of Spann talking about BIG OUTBREAKS (or something) specifically in Alabama. He may have actually been referencing 4-27-2011. In this video from a while ago I could have SWORN he said that for an outbreak “you want to have a low pass over Arkansas”.

In the video today he talked about how the Euro model has a low passing over Arkansas. I know that is just one thing of many when it comes to weather, but I did not think of this until I watched his video from today. Could be something to watch for in upcoming model runs??

I am going to try and find that video that I remember watching a while ago.

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

treys vid was amazing and hes def more or so looking at Sat for a robust svr event

 

[Clancy]

JUST A SECOND!!!!!!!!!

I just watched that video of Spann from earlier today and something he said triggered a memory.

I remember watching a video of Spann talking about BIG OUTBREAKS (or something) specifically in Alabama. He may have actually been referencing 4-27-2011. In this video from a while ago I could have SWORN he said that for an outbreak “you want to have a low pass over Arkansas”.

In the video today he talked about how the Euro model has a low passing over Arkansas. I know that is just one thing of many when it comes to weather, but I did not think of this until I watched his video from today. Could be something to watch for in upcoming model runs??

I am going to try and find that video that I remember watching a while ago.

Correct; more or less, a secondary low (or primary low, but in this case we'll be dealing with a secondary) passing to our immediate north and west greatly enhances kinematics and tends to play a significant role in increasing tornado risk. It's far from the only aspect of substantial Deep South tornado events, but it is a fairly common feature. I've heard folks refer to them as "St. Louis Lows" or "Memphis Lows" due to their decreased latitude compared to their parent lows.