Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0159 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025
Valid 152000Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...MID SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected from parts of far east Texas into
much of the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast this afternoon
through the overnight. Several tornadoes and scattered to numerous
damaging wind gusts should be the primary threats. A few strong
tornadoes are also possible.
...20Z Update...
The prior outlook remains largely unchanged. The well-defined
shortwave trough and 80-100 kt mid-level jet are evident on WV
imagery moving across west-central TX. Rapid surface cyclogenesis is
expected later this afternoon/evening as the upper trough/jet
overspread a broad frontal cyclone over the eastern Red River and MS
Valley vicinity. Initial semi-discrete development along the warm
front is expected this afternoon with continued heating and the
approach of the stronger cold front over western AR. Southwesterly
flow parallel to the frontal zone and little inhibition should
support quick upscale growth into a more linear mode. Strong
tropospheric flow (700 mb winds of 55-75 kt) will support the
potential for widespread damaging wind gusts with the line, while
strong shear could also support mesovortex tornadoes.
Partial clearing in the wake of earlier convection east of the
frontal zone will support diurnal heating and steepening of some low
and mid-level lapse rates across far eastern AR, northwestern MS and
southwestern TN. The decrease in inhibition while forcing for ascent
is still relatively weak may support some potential for more
discrete development. While it remains unclear if this will occur,
the very strong low-level shear (0-1 km BWD 40+ kt) would support a
conditional significant tornado threat with any prefrontal/warm
sector supercells able to evolve.
...Gulf Coast and Southeast...
The strongly forced squall line is forecast to translate rapidly
across much of the Southeast late this evening and overnight. Strong
low-level warm air advection and broad ascent ahead of the upper
trough could support isolated discrete development, and a some
strong tornado potential ahead of the line, especially farther south
across southern MS/AL. However, poor lapse rates aloft lend low
confidence to any discrete supercells being maintained. Damaging
gusts and line-embedded tornado will remain possible overnight. For
more info see the prior outlook.
..Lyons.. 02/15/2025
