2/15/25 SE Severe Threat

JPWX said:
I'm finding out people need a lesson in geography again.

North AL: 5% tornado risk from SPC. I included this in the text to a person who lives in Athens, AL (North AL)

Person: What's the tornado probability for Athens?

Me: insert facepalm

It literally shocks me how many in the general public has no idea where they live or what county they live in
Click to expand...
Feel your pain.
 
Clancy said:
Unfortunately a lot of people just don't seem to know where they are on a map. I've been a geography whizz since childhood, so it's something I struggle to understand, but I think it's still important to take time to get those people the information they need. Learning their county seems to be the most helpful thing, and thankfully both NWS offices and a lot of broadcast mets will reiterate that prior to severe events.
Click to expand...
Yeah. The new weather text system I use only allows me to send 160 characters per message so I really have to condense the message down to the most important/critical details.
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
Not sure, maybe. That system had some open warm sector tornado producers this one will likely not.
Click to expand...
If things pan out like the HRRR is depicting, then we'd be having a fairly clean, QLCS-only system. In some ways these can arguably be worse sometimes as pre-frontal convection can sometimes over-convect and crowd/stabilize the air ahead of the line.
 
Looking at this impressive QLCS off the 00z HRRR, it holds potential for a significant tornado as well in addition to any isolated to scattered convection that forms out ahead of it.
 
JPWX said:
Yeah. The new weather text system I use only allows me to send 160 characters per message so I really have to condense the message down to the most important/critical details.
Click to expand...
That seems counterintuituve.
 
TornadoFan17 said:
That seems counterintuituve.
Click to expand...
Yeah, but it's cheaper plus I can send out multiple messages without being warned. I use to use Text em all which was wonderful until they increased my price to nearly 300 per month because I was sending "too many texts" even though my text package was 400 people which was $119 per month. I also had to go thru a whole stupid thing with getting my number verified so that these phone companies would quit blocking my weather messages on Text em all. That turned out to be a huge ordeal because every turn I would take, text em all needed more info from me. So I usually send out one text forecast a day in the morning, but I send out more when there's a threat. Apparently, that didn't go well with text em all even though it's a mass text service.
 
Just a small thing of note - latest RAP has depicted a small field of weak surface-based instability out ahead of the QLCS across eastern AL and western GA. While it's not much, it would also be plenty to support damaging winds and spin-up tornadoes. We'll have to see how model trends evolve (as well as actual ground obs), but the presence of even a very weak field of unstable air could have a significant impact on the potency of storms as they move across the Piedmont of AL and GA early Sunday morning.
1739594689898.png1739594885578.png
 
Clancy said:
Just a small thing of note - latest RAP has depicted a small field of weak surface-based instability out ahead of the QLCS across eastern AL and western GA. While it's not much, it would also be plenty to support damaging winds and spin-up tornadoes. We'll have to see how model trends evolve (as well as actual ground obs), but the presence of even a very weak field of unstable air could have a significant impact on the potency of storms as they move across the Piedmont of AL and GA early Sunday morning.
View attachment 33781View attachment 33782
Click to expand...
Appreciate your constant updates and assessments!!
 
D1.
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1139 PM CST Fri Feb 14 2025

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...MID-SOUTH...AND CENTRAL GULF
STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Severe weather is expected from East Texas and Mid-South into much
of the Southeast. Scattered to numerous damaging wind gusts and a
few tornadoes are the primary threats. Storms are expected from late
afternoon through the overnight hours.

...Discussion...

Strong 500mb jet is currently digging southeast across the lower CO
River Valley. This feature is forecast to translate into far West TX
early in the period, then increase in intensity as it ejects into
the downstream side of the upper trough during the overnight hours.
Strong 12hr mid-level height falls are forecast to overspread much
of the lower MS/TN Valley region, with upwards of 210m expected
across northern areas by the end of the period. This evolution will
induce a surface low across north-central TX early which will track
into eastern AR by late afternoon, then deepen as it lifts into the
OH during the overnight hours.

LLJ should respond markedly and focus across the lower MS Valley
during the first half of the period. Boundary-layer air mass is
currently cool/stable across this region with modified Gulf air just
now approaching the upper TX coast and southern LA. Until this air
can advance inland any thunderstorm activity should be elevated in
nature, and likely sub-severe.

Latest thinking is boundary-layer recovery will occur across east TX
into southern AR by late morning, then further destabilization
should contribute to surface-based buoyancy that will support
potentially robust thunderstorms ahead of the aforementioned surface
low/cold front. Forecast soundings exhibit very strong shear across
this region with 0-3km SRH on the order of 500 m2/s2. Supercells are
expected to develop along a corridor from northern LA into western
TN from the afternoon into the early evening. Damaging winds and
tornadoes are expected. Additionally, given the strength of the wind
fields, and very dynamic, fast-moving trough, there is a risk for
strong tornadoes. Frontal convection should expand in areal coverage
as the boundary surges southeast.

During the latter part of the period, a secondary corridor of
concentrated severe may evolve from southeast LA, across southern MS
into southern AL. Strong LLJ will shift east overnight, and somewhat
higher theta-e air mass should have advanced inland into this region
ahead of the surging cold front. While damaging winds can be
expected with the more linear convection, some risk for strong
tornadoes does exist with more discrete supercells.
Click to expand...
day1otlk_1200.gifday1probotlk_1200_torn.gif
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top