2/15/25 SE Severe Threat

Only real change at 1930 is westward expansion of the ENH.
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0121 PM CST Thu Feb 13 2025

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR FAR EAST
TEXAS TO WESTERN ALABAMA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe weather is expected from East Texas into much of the
Southeast and parts of the Mid-South on Saturday. Scattered to
numerous damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes are the primary
threats. Storms are expected from late afternoon through the
evening.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will move from the Southwest to the Southern
Plains on Saturday and eventually into the Mid-Mississippi Valley by
12Z Sunday. During this period, a surface low will move from the
southern Plains to the Ohio Valley with an extensive warm sector
across the Southeast.

...Southeast...
The warm sector will be rapidly destabilizing Saturday morning
across the Southeast as mid 60s dewpoints surge north off of the
Gulf. As elevated thunderstorm activity expands within a broad area
of isentropic ascent across the Mid-Mississippi Valley, a large
region of precipitation will develop and likely mark the northward
extent of the warm frontal surge. This appears to be somewhere near
the MS/TN border into southeast Arkansas. South of this warm front,
a moderately unstable environment (1000-2000 J/kg MUCAPE) will
develop as temperatures warm into the 70s. However, forcing should
be weak across the warm sector with the majority of thunderstorms
expected to remain along the frontal zone.

Severe diurnal thunderstorm activity will likely be located from
East Texas into western Louisiana where greater instability and
steeper mid-level lapse rates will be present within a confluent
region along/ahead of the surface front. A few supercells may be
possible with a threat for large hail, severe wind gusts, and
perhaps a few tornadoes. Eventually, likely after 00Z when the
stronger mid-level forcing arrives, a squall line will start to
advance east across the Southeast. This squall line will pose a
threat for widespread severe wind gusts and perhaps some
line-embedded tornadoes given the cyclonically curved and long
low-level hodographs. Some pre-frontal convection may develop ahead
of the line late in the period, but lesser instability by this time
will likely limit the intensity of this activity.

..Bentley.. 02/13/2025
Click to expand...
1739476072987.png
 
UK_EF4 said:
View attachment 33726View attachment 33727

Talk about a concerning trend...

Will have to watch if this holds/continues, amongst other models too.
Click to expand...
NAM's mid range-to short-range rebound - feels like it happens about half the time. I still think it's probably undercooking thermals a bit, but MUCAPE fields have grown with northward extent between the 0Z and 18Z runs.
1739479073963.png
 
Disco from Trey on Saturday.

Note: While discussing trough ejection, Trey was using 12Z runs, with 18Z runs showing a more impressive presentation, as pointed out by @UK_EF4
 
Clancy said:
Smithville probably disagrees with the use of the word "like" I think. But yeah, presence of forcing could aid in discrete activity.
Click to expand...
me looking at 00z HRRR:

and yes he does disagree with the word like
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