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Severe threat Wednesday February 12, 2025

This cluster will be the ones to watch for potential tornado threat as we go through the night. Not confident they'll do anything, but they do have some weak, transient mesocyclones.
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Newer model runs really like the idea of a warm sector surge over SE Alabama as the low starts to lift off to the north. We've had neutral height falls to slight height rises for the past few hours. 0z RAP shows ever so slight height falls over that region in the same time frame. I think we'll have one last "hoorah" in that region before the cold front comes through.
 
Jason Mills said:
Newer model runs really like the idea of a warm sector surge over SE Alabama as the low starts to lift off to the north. We've had neutral height falls to slight height rises for the past few hours. 0z RAP shows ever so slight height falls over that region in the same time frame. I think we'll have one last "hoorah" in that region before the cold front comes through.
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oh boi, we have a sup devolping on the Mobile radar
 
This storm over McIntosh has maintained a persistent meso, which has recently intensified. Will need to be monitored.
1739416231996.png
 
SPC seems confident in the tornado threat increasing into the night across the southern third of Alabama.
Mesoscale Discussion 0092
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0910 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

Areas affected...southern AL

Concerning...Tornado Watch 6...7...

Valid 130310Z - 130445Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 6, 7 continues.

SUMMARY...Tornado and isolated damaging wind potential will persist
into the overnight across parts of southern Alabama. A strong
tornado remains possible, mainly through late evening.

DISCUSSION...After a couple potentially strong tornadoes earlier
this evening, a relative lull in convective intensity has been
recently observed. With a lack of mid-level height falls across the
warm-moist sector, in conjunction with a filling surface cyclone
tonight, overall severe potential may have peaked. Still, strong
low-level shear (0-1 km SRH around 350 m2/s2 per MOB VWP data) and
upper 60s to low 70s surface dew points in much of the warm-moist
sector, will remain favorable for a strong tornado with any
sustained supercells along the slow-moving warm front. While the
western portion of the front has been modified by prior convective
outflow, the eastern portion of this boundary arced through
Montgomery to Barbour County, AL (the MGM ASOS measured a 9 F
temperature rise in 10 minutes during passage). It should continue
advancing north in/towards the I-85 corridor, increasing tornado
potential into this region later tonight.

..Grams.. 02/13/2025
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Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 92

Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.
www.spc.noaa.gov
 
Clancy said:
SPC seems confident in the tornado threat increasing into the night across the southern third of Alabama.

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 92

Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.
www.spc.noaa.gov
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Ugh classic Dixie alley. Hoping for all to be alert….
 
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