Hurricane Hurricane Milton

[wx_guy]

I’m not sure it has weakened all that much. I assume shear is causing the more ragged satellite presentation, but radar presentation hasn’t changed that much and that northern eyewall is kickin butt and taking names from KTBW.

I agree, I think recon will find it's still a Cat 4. Maybe 135-140 mph and pressure about 940 mb is my bet

 

[tornado examiner]

The difference in radar vs satellite presentation is confusing.

 

[TornadoFan]

 

[wx_guy]

The difference in radar vs satellite presentation is confusing.

Just means the eye has filled in with clouds, but on radar, it's still a very potent partial eye wall. It IS weakening, but slowly, not dramatically.

 

[OHWX97]

Milton weakening as it nears landfall was anticipated and well forecasted, but, the fact of the matter is that it's still clearly a very powerful hurricane and will be highly impactful regardless of intensity.

 

[wx_guy]

Milton weakening as it nears landfall was anticipated and well forecasted, but, the fact of the matter is that it's still clearly a very powerful hurricane and will be highly impactful regardless of intensity.

Yeah, I saw on X that a good analog is Hurricane Opal. I think that's a good one here. Even though it weakened, it was still a very impactful and destructive storm.

 

[Blountwolf]

The difference in radar vs satellite presentation is confusing.

Smarter folks correct me if I am wrong or oversimplify, but it is literally the difference in looking at it close to the surface and looking at it from the top. It's almost always very pretty and symmetrical on radar - surface spins just are - even at much lower strength. At height, if it looks really organized, that's a sign of lots of organization in 3d, bottom to top. With it getting sheared (cross winds up high) and there being some dry air mixing in at the mid levels, its disorganization at height is what you are seeing. I expect we'll get another pulse of convection that helps stack it again somewhat, then shear off, pulse, shear, etc. A common happening in a very sheared environment.

 

[Clancy]

Red letter day for MFL.

 

[Clancy]

Additional tornado footage from Fort Myers. That we would see multivortex wedges today in Florida is not something I would've believed even a day ago.

 

[TornadoFan]

TDS SE of Placid Lakes, FL.

 

[OHWX97]

Yeah, I saw on X that a good analog is Hurricane Opal. I think that's a good one here. Even though it weakened, it was still a very impactful and destructive storm.

Absolutely! Katrina and Rita are other great examples of this. Devastating storm surge in all three of those cases despite significant weakening prior to landfall.

 

[Clancy]

No words but "wow." Over a dozen tornado warnings in effect in southern and central Florida now.

 

[South AL Wx]

2 pm advisory, down to 130 mph. 944 mb pressure.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

The amount of tornado warnings in central/South Florida right now. Is pure insanity

 

[Clancy]

2 pm advisory, down to 130 mph. 944 mb pressure.

Seems like he's moving a bit ahead of what we figured he might earlier today/yesterday? At this rate he will be landfalling earlier in the evening.

 

[OHWX97]

TDS SE of Placid Lakes, FL.

That TDS has gotten massive. Placid Lakes is in trouble if that stays on the ground.

 

[wx_guy]

Interesting, so down to a "low-end" Cat 4. So a Cat 3 looks likely at landfall.

 

[Blountwolf]

Fingers crossed - weakening that much is good.
Kind of amazing it stayed as strong as long as it did - VERY dry air covers almost the entire Gulf.

 

[Clancy]

Interesting, so down to a "low-end" Cat 4. So a Cat 3 looks likely at landfall.

Fingers crossed - weakening that much is good.
Kind of amazing it stayed as strong as long as it did - VERY dry air covers almost the entire Gulf.

But worth remembering that Katrina was C3 at landfall and still did unimaginable damage.

 

[Blountwolf]

How's the rain amounts in N FL so far?