Hurricane Hurricane Milton

[Jacob]

I can not get over how well wrapped up and symmetrical that core still is. Not good.

Its recovery from 2-3 hours ago is unfortunately very impressive.

 

[lake.effect]

TORs popping up everywhere

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Two confirmed tornadoes on the ground still

 

[wx_guy]

The SPC's mesoscale discussion mentions "strong" tornadoes are possible, that wording usually means EF2+

 

[Mike S]

What time is landfall predicted?

The last I saw, it was the very early hours of Thursday, around midnight-1am. But I think that was looking at the latest GFS run. I'm not sure of any official expectation.

 

[Mike S]

Currently, looking like between 8 PM and midnight

Earlier the better I suppose.

 

[WesL]

This storm has been impressive since the start.

The last I saw, it was the very early hours of Thursday, around midnight-1am. But I think that was looking at the latest GFS run. I'm not sure of any official expectation.

Milton has kept us guessing since it formed.

 

[wx_guy]

The last I saw, it was the very early hours of Thursday, around midnight-1am. But I think that was looking at the latest GFS run. I'm not sure of any official expectation.

The NWS Tampa Bay says the center is about 160 miles away, moving at 17 mph currently, so that puts it at 9-10 hours out, roughly speaking.

 

[Blountwolf]

I expect that 17mph will be increasing further, yes? A transition like this comes with acceleration?

 

[South AL Wx]

I expect that 17mph will be increasing further, yes? A transition like this comes with acceleration?

NHC actually says the opposite:

"A northeastward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected through this
evening."

 

[Jacob]

As good as it looks like it has recovered on satellite, it does look like on radar some dry air *may* have disrupted the eyewall and be working in on the south side of the eye.

 

[Blountwolf]

NHC actually says the opposite:

"A northeastward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected through this
evening."

Whoa - OK. Interesting. Note to self to study that after the fact, because that seems counterintuitive.

 

[South AL Wx]

Whoa - OK. Interesting. Note to self to study that after the fact, because that seems counterintuitive.

The discussion didn't give much insight, but said:

"The track models insist that the hurricane will continue to move
northeastward but slow down through the rest of today, with a turn
toward the east-northeast occurring overnight."

 

[Kds86z]

New day 1 is ominous……

 

[Blountwolf]

Dry air wrapping in under.

 

[cincywx]

these three troublemakers look like what you'd see in the plains. it's also impressive how early in the day this is occurring.

 

[wx_guy]

Might still be weakening a bit, maybe 140 mph. The newest Vortex Data Message shows there are two eye walls, so the eye wall replacement cycle did not successfully complete.

 

[Evan]

The continued north movement is really starting to limit Tampa's escape opportunities.

10 miles north or south is going to mean a LOT. Do we see it going right up the Bay or is it the dreaded landfall north of town?

A more southern landfall, that extends the Tampa Bay shield mythology, seems increasingly improbable.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

 

[cincywx]

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM EDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN CHARLOTTE AND NORTH CENTRAL LEE COUNTIES...

At 1241 PM EDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was
located over Palmona Park, or near Fort Myers, moving north at 25
mph.

This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

SOURCE...Broadcast media confirmed tornado.