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Severe Weather 2024

slenker said:
Some pretty intense soundings coming out of the 12z GFS for Thursday. Nearly 3000 J/kg of MUCAPE and >450 m2/s2 of effective SRH colocated with it in some parts of Iowa and southern Minnesota.
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12Z GFS appears to depict everything south of I-80 in Iowa for Thursday.

I suspect you're looking at 00Z Thursday, which is actually 7 PM CDT Wednesday 6/12.
 
So, interesting note about the Szombathely, Hungary tornado. Damage has also been reported from across the border in Austria. Not sure how often tornadoes cross international borders or what was the last time it happened, but I can't imagine it's something that happens every day. Off the top of my head, the only other example I can think of is a storm I remember reading about in Grazulis' Significant Tornadoes about a tornado that caused damage in Brownsville, Texas and Matamoros, Mexico.
 
I don't think I've ever seen models this incredibly inconsistent only a day ahead of an event. From what I'm seeing, it looks like there's very little agreement on the main threat and the specific location of it. The NAM 3km shows scattered development across east SD, south MN and west IA. The HRRR shows linear convection early in the morning/afternoon across north IA and central MN, with possibly a few semi-discrete/discrete cells into the overnight. The FV3 shows semi-discrete development in central IA. Does anyone have an idea of what threat tomorrow might actually have?
 
Maxis_s said:
I don't think I've ever seen models this incredibly inconsistent only a day ahead of an event. From what I'm seeing, it looks like there's very little agreement on the main threat and the specific location of it. The NAM 3km shows scattered development across east SD, south MN and west IA. The HRRR shows linear convection early in the morning/afternoon across north IA and central MN, with possibly a few semi-discrete/discrete cells into the overnight. The FV3 shows semi-discrete development in central IA. Does anyone have an idea of what threat tomorrow might actually have?
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This is pretty common with setups in the late spring into summer, when mesoscale factors become more important (even though they always are). CAMS often bounce around a lot especially outside of 18-24 hours because they can't reliably pin down the features that will initiate convection.
 
All-hazards threat for the Upper Midwest today. Disco mentions possibility for tornado risk upgrade.
1718201011367.png
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0702 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Valid 121300Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of very large hail, damaging
wind gusts, and a few tornadoes will be possible across parts of the
Upper Midwest late afternoon and early evening.

...Southern MN/WI early today...
Morning water vapor imagery shows a fast-moving shortwave trough
over the western Dakotas. Lift and enhanced low-level
thermal/moisture advection ahead of the trough has resulted in
scattered thunderstorm development over western MN and eastern SD.
These storms may persist through the morning, tracking across
central/southern MN by early afternoon with some risk of large hail.
Daytime heating and increasing low-level moisture will eventually
result in moderate CAPE and a risk of organized strong/severe
thunderstorms - mainly from central MN eastward after 18z. These
storms may grow upscale and track into central WI before weakening,
posing a continued risk of damaging winds and hail.

...Northern MN/WI later today...
In the wake of the aforementioned morning convection, strong daytime
heating and moisture advection will result in a corridor of moderate
CAPE across central/northeast MN by mid/late afternoon.
Temperatures west of this area will heating to near 90F, with
forecast soundings showing little cap, very steep mid-level lapse
rates, and MLCAPE values around 3000 J/kg. Large scale forcing will
be subtle, leading to the development of discrete supercells.
Several overnight CAM runs suggest intense storms that form will
track into the Arrowhead region of MN and areas around Duluth by
early evening, posing a risk of very large hail, damaging winds, and
a few tornadoes. Forecast soundings show substantial low-level
shear with effective SRH values of 300+ m2/s2. It is uncertain how
the early storms over southern MN will affect moisture return. If
high dewpoint air can make it into the ENH risk area, higher tornado
probabilities may become warranted. These storms will likely
congeal and spread eastward across northern WI during the evening
with a continued risk of damaging winds and some hail.

..Hart/Bentley.. 06/12/2024
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Clancy said:
Casual 8:45 AM funnel cloud in Corpus Christi today.
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Ah yes, a cumulus mediocris producing a funnel.
1718205994389.png
This hrrr sounding at 8:00am taken in the general area shows lots of veering around the 850mb level, which shows up on the hodograph.

Quite a bit of low level turning that would definitely explain how such a spectacle occurred.
 
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