Severe WX Severe Threat 4/18-4/19

[JBishopwx]

 

[warneagle]

TORR in IL

 

[andyhb]

The tornado in question.

 

[SmokeEater]

FD dispatch reporting two tornadoes near Route 4, one down, one forming.

 

[SmokeEater]

All three TW'd storms in IL and MO going confirmed by spotters.

 

[MichelleH]

Tornado warning in Sharkey and Yazoo Counties, MS as well.

 

[lake.effect]

2024 Formula:

D6+ = looking really good
MidRange = downtrend, strife, and discourse
CAM Range = maybe? I don’t know? If something does manage to go up, it could be an interesting tornado day
Day Of: Wtf? Or: tornados popping up outside the predicted threat area

Rinse, repeat

This post is aging quite well today, which currently has 8 tornado warnings. In a 5% tor risk

 

[Chris3024]

That escalated quickly in Illinois

 

[Tempestas Tonitrua]

This post is aging quite well today, which currently has 8 tornado warnings. In a 5% tor risk

Warnings from Illinois all the way down to Mississippi, what is this? 3/31/2023?

 

[SmokeEater]

Yea.... Me thinks the north severe watch shoulda been tor. The whole line is warned now.

 

[jiharris0220]

Welcome to 2024, where highly anticipated tornadic setups with extreme kinematics always fall short, while run of the mill low expectation severe thunderstorm days end up outperforming moderate risks.

 

[Chris3024]

that's a big tornado warning.

 

[lake.effect]

I'm done being "nice" to the SPC. They are failing big time and need to be called out / held accountable.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

that's a big tornado warning.

Yessir it is.

 

[MMWX]

That might be the largest TOR polygon I've ever seen

 

[jiharris0220]

Held accountable for what? There are multiple tornado warnings on going giving people plenty of time to shelter.
The public doesn’t even pay attention to events that are days out, people only take things seriously in warnings.
Nobody expected an outcome like this, because this is the weather, one of the most unpredictable things in nature.

 

[Chris3024]

are we looking at a line-echo wave pattern?

 

[MMWX]

I'm done being "nice" to the SPC. They are failing big time and need to be called out / held accountable.

They put an ENH over the St. Louis metro. I don't know what else you want.

 

[lake.effect]

Held accountable for what? There are multiple tornado warnings on going giving people plenty of time to shelter.
The public doesn’t even pay attention to events that are days out, people only take things seriously in warnings.
Nobody expected an outcome like this, because this is the weather, one of the most unpredictable things in nature.

For poor performance?
Their job is to assess risk and they've done a terrible job at doing so.

Case in point: 8 tornado warnings in a single severe thunderstorm watch? That's embarassing.

 

[jiharris0220]

Tornadoes can occur in severe thunderstorm watches you know that right? And like I said, there are multiple warnings alerting people of what’s happening.
I’m not even going to argue your “poor performance” assertion as it’s simply false.
But this is getting off topic now.