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Svr Wx threat April 1-April 2 2024

JPWX said:
Very interesting. Seems like you would have a way to put a limit on how high the values can reach. Anyways, I honestly didn't know about the different algorithms.
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I highly recommend diving into the various algorithms (e.g. the sounding indices) that have been developed and used over the decades. There's some fascinating stuff if you know where to look!

As for my location (approximately northern middle Tennessee), it's currently still cloudy, though things could potentially change later. I intend to keep a close eye on the weather today!
 
Sun is trying its best to poke out in the Starkville/Columbus MS area. Very windy as well. We were forecasted to be pretty cloudy today.
 
While I sincerely hope today's threat completely busts, I am worried that some people might be in for a nasty surprised based on tweets etc I have seen.

I think fundamentally, this events synoptics are the biggest strongpoints and are very impressive, reminiscent of classic, large scale outbreaks. All the largest scale classic outbreaks have synoptics to accompany them - and of course, not every impressive synoptic would then go on to produce a big outbreak... but today when it is close, I would much rather be safe than sorry.

I also think the clear cloud cover across the risk area shouldn't really come as a surprise: models have been showing a big dry punch for days now and I myself often easily fall down the "trust the CAM hole" which in my opinion is completely natural given they have been leading weather forecasting in some aspects recently - but sometimes I think its also good to take a look on a larger scale which can perhaps be a bit more illuminating of the whole picture. Moreover, As people here have already concluded - moisture return here is pretty much a given even with cloud cover issues: terrain is inducing southerly flow into the risk area and obs already show dew points of 60F+ spreading northwards. The HRRR which over forecasted cloud cover still was developing 1500-2000j/kg of CAPE. Dew points even remain high (as much as 70F!) behind the storm cluster in TN, which could be important for later on as the environment moves NE.

Even in the southern mode, the line is much less messy and clearer than models suggested (perhaps related to my earlier post which suggested models could be underestimating extent of dry air) - this is unfortunately a positive thing for the development of discrete storms from TN into KY, which could easily go tornadic as we are all aware.

With the clearing and moisture transport commencing in the northern mode, I still believe a line of discrete thunderstorms will develop there, and strengthen through the evening (even somewhat soon). I truly, truly hope to be completely wrong about all of this - but as today evolves I am getting very concerned.
 
UK_EF4 said:
While I sincerely hope today's threat completely busts, I am worried that some people might be in for a nasty surprised based on tweets etc I have seen.

I think fundamentally, this events synoptics are the biggest strongpoints and are very impressive, reminiscent of classic, large scale outbreaks. All the largest scale classic outbreaks have synoptics to accompany them - and of course, not every impressive synoptic would then go on to produce a big outbreak... but today when it is close, I would much rather be safe than sorry.

I also think the clear cloud cover across the risk area shouldn't really come as a surprise: models have been showing a big dry punch for days now and I myself often easily fall down the "trust the CAM hole" which in my opinion is completely natural given they have been leading weather forecasting in some aspects recently - but sometimes I think its also good to take a look on a larger scale which can perhaps be a bit more illuminating of the whole picture. Moreover, As people here have already concluded - moisture return here is pretty much a given even with cloud cover issues: terrain is inducing southerly flow into the risk area and obs already show dew points of 60F+ spreading northwards. The HRRR which over forecasted cloud cover still was developing 1500-2000j/kg of CAPE. Dew points even remain high (as much as 70F!) behind the storm cluster in TN, which could be important for later on as the environment moves NE.

Even in the southern mode, the line is much less messy and clearer than models suggested (perhaps related to my earlier post which suggested models could be underestimating extent of dry air) - this is unfortunately a positive thing for the development of discrete storms from TN into KY, which could easily go tornadic as we are all aware.

With the clearing and moisture transport commencing in the northern mode, I still believe a line of discrete thunderstorms will develop there, and strengthen through the evening (even somewhat soon). I truly, truly hope to be completely wrong about all of this - but as today evolves I am getting very concerned.
Click to expand...
It is Twitter, so you can only expect the worst takes, but yeah, I certainly won't be trusting this system to be well-behaved. Could be a very rough afternoon and evening for a lot of us.
 
Mesocyclone-producing MCS is heading into WV, with a small pool of instability overlayed favorable shear.
1712069349846.png
 
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