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Svr Wx threat April 1-April 2 2024

0z HRRR looks like a bimodal threat will set up with two discrete-turning-into-QLCS setups in Kentucky/Ohio and in Alabama/Georgia (maybe FL Panhandle too) with a linear less hyperactive setup in Tennessee in between. Looks like an active day tomorrow if this verifies.
 
KevinH said:
Would you mind posting graphics for these? :)
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No Way GIF
 
Here's the Kentucky/Ohio threat at 21z:

1712021530751.png




And the Dixie threat slightly later:

1712021649453.png

The Ohio/Kentucky threat looks more discrete to begin with (if this verifies), but congeals into a QLCS later. The southern threat looks a lot more QLCS-oriented from the get-go, but the supercelluar structures are maintained through the model run overnight into Georgia.

IF the HRRR is to be believed, I'd maintain the MDT in Ohio and extend it into Kentucky somewhat, take the Tennessee area down to SLGT, and upgrade most of AL/GA to ENH in the areas it isn't already.
 
TH2002 said:
Did you really have to? My printer can't even properly print a photo the size of a postage stamp...

I wish all printers worked as well as the HRRR Supercell Printer™.
Click to expand...

Pretty sure the HRW-FV3 and RRFS have dethroned it, but it still has its moments.

Back to tonight; string of tornado reports with the storms in far northeast OK now but they seem to be decreasing on radar, despite the improving low-level shear. This was always one of the possible failure modes for the significant tornado threat today - that by the time that LL shear ramped up, there wouldn't be many (if any) discrete supercells left to take advantage of it.
 
WeatherDan said:
April fools? It's outdated, but has anyone ever seen STPs this high?
View attachment 24648
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IIRC, the algorithms to calculate STP are done differently on different platforms, and I can't remember the metric, but this site that I see posted often uses a metric that often inflates the STP too much. Pivotal Weather's calculations are more grounded, for instance. Still, the colors are a good indicator of relative danger level.
 
wx_guy said:
IIRC, the algorithms to calculate STP are done differently on different platforms, and I can't remember the metric, but this site that I see posted often uses a metric that often inflates the STP too much. Pivotal Weather's calculations are more grounded, for instance. Still, the colors are a good indicator of relative danger level.
Click to expand...
Correct; WeatherBell calculates STP in a different way which results in inflated numbers, compared to other sources. Used commonly by Twitter clickbaiters but yeah, it definitely still has utility.

Note: Color palettes are also important, and one could argue one is better than the other in that regard.
 
The 0z HRRR's updraft helicity. Looks more potent of an outbreak throughout southern Illinois, Ohio, and Kentucky with a smaller outbreak in Alabama into Georgia and scattered updraft helicity streaks in Tennessee. 1712022603666.png
 
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