Severe Weather Threat - January 8th-9th, 2024

[UncleJuJu98]

Last two long range hrrr runs arent too impressive on semi discrete development.

Also what does intense tornado mean? I know weak /strong and violent but what is intense?

 

[tornado examiner]

Last two long range hrrr runs arent too impressive on semi discrete development.

Also what does intense tornado mean? I know weak /strong and violent but what is intense?

Intense usually means ef3+

 

[Justin Hindman Hindy]

Last two long range hrrr runs arent too impressive on semi discrete development.

Also what does intense tornado mean? I know weak /strong and violent but what is intense?

every time I see intense, it's categorized as an ef2 tornado but not long tracking.

 

[KevinH]

Last two long range hrrr runs arent too impressive on semi discrete development.

Also what does intense tornado mean? I know weak /strong and violent but what is intense?

From Wikipedia:

 

[Gail]

My son is at tech school at Keesler for Weather so I’m just hoping he pays attention tonight and stays put in his dorm.

 

[Clancy]

Most of the CAMs are still depicting pretty nasty UH (at low levels, not just elevated), regardless of discrete development. The WRF models, which are historically less aggressive than others (*cough* FV3) depict a few supercells and aggressive UH streaking.

 

[keithGA]

Most of the CAMs are still depicting pretty nasty UH (at low levels, not just elevated), regardless of discrete development. The WRF models, which are historically less aggressive than others (*cough* FV3) depict a few supercells and aggressive UH streaking.

Yikea

 

[Clancy]

Additionally, the NCAR CAM neural network project (https://www2.mmm.ucar.edu/projects/ncar_ensemble/camviewer/), which I've found to be a pretty good approximator for severe probabilities, paints some really aggressive values over the Panhandle area. Individual tornado probs also quite high.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Most of the CAMs are still depicting pretty nasty UH (at low levels, not just elevated), regardless of discrete development. The WRF models, which are historically less aggressive than others (*cough* FV3) depict a few supercells and aggressive UH streaking.
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Didn't realize the HRRR had some impressive updraft swaths in south Alabama. Activity picks up it looks like when things hit the Alabama Mississippi border

 

[Clancy]

Didn't realize the HRRR had some impressive updraft swaths in south Alabama. Activity picks up it looks like when things hit the Alabama Mississippi border

Looks like the jet really kicks in around that time frame, 03-06Z. Unfortunately, seems like that area is sort of the bullseye as far as favorable parameter space is concerned.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Newest hrrr looks nasty with land falling tornadic supercells in Louisiana around 2 or 3 today

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Overall took a step more into the nasty with the latest run lol

 

[tornado examiner]

So…we’ll probably see a tornado outbreak today….how severe is ….unknown

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Would expect a tornado mesoscale discussion to come within 2-4 hours if I had to guess.

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 15

Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.

www.spc.noaa.gov

 

[Clancy]

Some limiting factors for the Texas portion of this setup.

 

[KevinH]

Next D1 update is due at 10a CT/11am ET.

Any last minute thoughts on changes that could be made??!

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Next D1 update is due at 10a CT/11am ET.

Any last minute thoughts on changes that could be made??!

Think it stays the same. A small moderate could be issued for south Alabama and parts of the Florida panhandle if I had to guess on area to go higher.

 

[Tanner]

Day 1 remains status quo

 

[Clancy]

Very slight northward expansion of the 10% on the NE flank for TOR risk, but otherwise no changes.

 

[MichelleH]

@JPWX , in response to your earlier question - the Christmas Day 2012 tornado that hit Mobile was about 4:40 in the afternoon.