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Severe Weather 2024

Latest 3 GFS runs.
 

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I'm looking at Spring 2024 severe weather expectations. My expectation is active especially with how quiet our Fall season was. There's two years that I found (if some of you have other years please include those) where we transitioned from El Nino to Neutral. 2003 to 2004. 2003 overall had 1,415 tornadoes (141 of those EF2+) while 2004 had 1,842 tornadoes (highest on record) with 137 of those EF2+. I do note that we should transition into a central pacific Modoki La Nina at some point in Spring but when that'll happen remains to be seen. The December CANSIPS run showed La Nina conditions by late March going into April. If that occurs, that could lead to a busy peak spring severe season (April/May). I don't have to say which areas either because most of you know (hint: not tornado alley) I await the January run of the CANSIPS.

Let's look at how Mississippi total tornado count ended up in 2003 and 2004 by Fall vs Spring:

Fall 2003 (October-December): 80

Spring 2003 (March-May): 741

Fall 2004 (October-December): 255

Spring 2004 (March-May): 684

Looking at the latest CPC expectation as of December 14th: "El Niño is expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter, with a transition to ENSO-neutral favored during April-June 2024 (60% chance)."
 
00Z GFS with a strong system on the 8th-9th (even showing a secondary low over LA/MS a few frames earlier) that would carry some spooky wind fields. Would also cause winter problems for parts of the Midwest.
prateptype_cat-imp.conus (1).png
 
tennessee storm chaser said:
Yeah but the consistency it’s been showing a such a strong system is some concerning…. Plenty time for it to get worked out
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That one powerhouse system earlier this year that was supposed to bring multiple violent long track tornadoes has me weary ended up panning out as nothing lol. I think we should all step back a second and let it get more into range. We've been duped many times
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
That one powerhouse system earlier this year that was supposed to bring multiple violent long track tornadoes has me weary ended up panning out as nothing lol. I think we should all step back a second and let it get more into range. We've been duped many times
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I don’t think anyone is getting too excited at this point. They are just using this thread on this forum for what it is used for, discussing the weather in 2024 by pointing out what the models are saying. Most people on here know that the models flip flop, especially this far out. That timeframe is definitely something to watch though… for now lol
 
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SPC seems to be hinting at severe potential on the horizon:

Medium-range guidance suggests that yet another upper trough may
amplify over the western CONUS next weekend and move towards the
southern High Plains towards the end of the forecast period (Day
8/Sunday). There may be a better chance for low-level moisture to
advance inland across parts of the southern Plains and lower MS
Valley with this system. Still, any severe potential will probably
be delayed until after next weekend
 
12z GFS continues to be consistent around that timeframe.
 

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