Severe WX Severe Weather Threat - December 8th-10th, 2023

JBishopwx said:
I see no over hyping going on, just scenarios that *could* happen. You do have some folks who come here for severe weather information, so it best to keep them updated. But hey it's whatever.
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We're all weather nerds. That's why we're here - we love this stuff. But there's always a degree of hopefulness with some folks leading into severe weather events - guys looking forward to chase and guys enjoying the thrill of tracking the storms. Combined with the fact that it's been slow for a while, folks are eager. Based on what I had seen to date, some of the talk in this thread of 'outbreak' or 'likelihoods' was premature. It bears watching and I think folks in NE Miss/NW Alabama should keep a closer eye. But I just don't see this as a huge chasing/outbreak event. So my point was to save those projective comments for the systems that warrant that level of discussion. We'll all have ample opportunity to do that in three to four months.
 
treypops said:
We're all weather nerds. That's why we're here - we love this stuff. But there's always a degree of hopefulness with some folks leading into severe weather events - guys looking forward to chase and guys enjoying the thrill of tracking the storms. Combined with the fact that it's been slow for a while, folks are eager. Based on what I had seen to date, some of the talk in this thread of 'outbreak' or 'likelihoods' was premature. It bears watching and I think folks in NE Miss/NW Alabama should keep a closer eye. But I just don't see this as a huge chasing/outbreak event. So my point was to save those projective comments for the systems that warrant that level of discussion. We'll all have ample opportunity to do that in three to four months.
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The only mention of "outbreak" in this thread was a video shared by Reed Timmer who calls every potential threat an "outbreak," or so it seems. No one in this thread has expected this to be a major event. But there IS a tornado threat with this system and all it takes is ONE to kill someone or upend a family's life. Since this system is pretty much upon us now, (and not directing this just at you) can we please get back to discussing severe weather without the high school drama? I've seen too many skilled mets leave this board - which I have been a member of since 2002 - because of it. Please don't reply to this - anyone - because I will not respond. This is a severe weather thread and we are here to discuss and hopefully save lives of people who DON'T share our love of weather. There are non-weather threads on this page for everything else. /rant
 
MichelleH said:
... Reed Timmer who calls every potential threat an "outbreak," ...
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Jeremy Strong Yes GIF by SuccessionHBO
 
treypops said:
We're all weather nerds. That's why we're here - we love this stuff. But there's always a degree of hopefulness with some folks leading into severe weather events - guys looking forward to chase and guys enjoying the thrill of tracking the storms. Combined with the fact that it's been slow for a while, folks are eager. Based on what I had seen to date, some of the talk in this thread of 'outbreak' or 'likelihoods' was premature. It bears watching and I think folks in NE Miss/NW Alabama should keep a closer eye. But I just don't see this as a huge chasing/outbreak event. So my point was to save those projective comments for the systems that warrant that level of discussion. We'll all have ample opportunity to do that in three to four months.
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This is just my opinion, but every event should have the same urgency and attention. But I guess I have too much disaster preparedness and recovery planning from the Red Cross position I'm apart of in me.
 
JBishopwx said:
This is just my opinion, but every event should have the same urgency and attention. But I guess I have too much disaster preparedness and recovery planning from the Red Cross position I'm apart of in me.
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And these are the types of comments that should not be made and end up ruining these threads. This red cross virtue signal. Not dissimilar from the other comment about in this tread about not knowing how dixie alley works. None of that is productive. At all.

Let's talk about the weather.
 
WRF-ARW is moot on much of any convection tommorow.

WRF-ARW2 goes nuclear for north half of Mississippi and North half of Alabama lol.

Yuck, I'll toss these runs and wait for 00z runs tonight and see what the next 18z and 00z hrrr runs say.
 
UH tracks from the 12Z NAM and HRRR seem to suggest that the NW half of AL, northern MS and TN will have the greater chance of tornadoes.
uh03_max.us_se (1).pnguh03_max.us_se.png
 
treypops said:
And these are the types of comments that should not be made and end up ruining these threads. This red cross virtue signal. Not dissimilar from the other comment about in this tread about not knowing how dixie alley works. None of that is productive. At all.

Let's talk about the weather.
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And to add, stop sending me ugly private messages, jbishop. I will not respond to them. If you're willing to make yourself look stupid, do it in front of everybody.

Again, let's talk about the weather.
 
I say we see Enhanced Risk upgrade by either the next Day 2 update or by tomorrow morning. Not sure about a 10% or SIG TOR hatch area but I would say it could be warranted.
 
JPWX said:
I say we see Enhanced Risk upgrade by either the next Day 2 update or by tomorrow morning. Not sure about a 10% or SIG TOR hatch area but I would say it could be warranted.
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Wouldn't be surprised to see a D1 10% for parts of MS and TN if models hold as currently presented.
 
treypops said:
And these are the types of comments that should not be made and end up ruining these threads. This red cross virtue signal. Not dissimilar from the other comment about in this tread about not knowing how dixie alley works. None of that is productive. At all.

Let's talk about the weather.
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Wasn't going to reply to this nonsence but I am.. What I sent wasn't dirty or childish, Not going to deal with trolls like you and others. It's hard to talk about the weather when you guys have a smart opinion about everything I post. I have move on, it's time for you guys to do the same. And last I check, preparedness is weather related. Have a great day, and stay safe.
 
Clancy said:
UH tracks from the 12Z NAM and HRRR seem to suggest that the NW half of AL, northern MS and TN will have the greater chance of tornadoes.
View attachment 22336View attachment 22337
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Yessir, I'm hedging a bet that the tornado spin chances will increase once the sun falls, this event will need the extra oomph of the nocturnal jet.
JPWX said:
I say we see Enhanced Risk upgrade by either the next Day 2 update or by tomorrow morning. Not sure about a 10% or SIG TOR hatch area but I would say it could be warranted.
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I think a 10% as well but no significant tornado chance. I just wanna see a consistent picture with the HRRR and WRF lol. Either way your going to have a stormy time in your area
 
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