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April 2024 Weather Video of the Month Post your nominations now!
Winter Weather/Extreme Cold Threat 1/13-1/17
- Thread starter JBishopwx
- Start date
Looks like someone is going to get a decent snow out of this. Hopefully it’s me lol
Which weather model is best at forecasting snow?
David in SW Blount
Member
That sharp cutoff for accumulations reminds me so much of the February 2015 storm. We had 6-8 inches in my immediate area of SW Blount County, AL. It was weird driving south and seeing the snow depth plummet quickly, even coming out of my neighborhood. It was down to 2-3 inches at Exit 284, just a mile south of where I live. I think Birmingham (25 miles south) got zip.
My area is so close to the dark blue.
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My chains come in today! Let's hope that ice stays away.
NWS of bham forecast snow totals! 
I'm hoping we are the dividing line again. We often are - I think it's the mountain.
David in SW Blount
Member
Yeah, ever since I've lived in Smoke Rise (2002), we've almost always had a little more than the lower elevations along Hwy 160.
Thanksgivingbrown
Member
MikeP
Member
Need this to shift slightly to the south.
Sadly not the GFS in Alabama - at least not as of 2020. Between 20-30% success rate of snow forecasts at 48 hrs.
Source: https://dtcenter.org/sites/default/files/events/2020/4-patel-ronak.pdf
Gail
Member
I’m debating on buying a generator today. We’ve lost power twice in the 23 years we’ve lived in our home - during Katrina and during the tornado that hit town. Both were restored within 24 hours since we live steps from main resources (school, post office, gas station, Marshalls office, water company, power company, fire department, etc…). Part of me is like “it’s not worth it” and another part is “my kiddo will be freezing if we lose power for any amount of time”. :/
ECMWF looking similar to GFS - crushes NW MS south of Memphis.
As always, it's going to be a case of where the band sets up. Lots of potential for for mischief with this system - we're likely not to know the exact placement until the event happens, but as of the models right now, NW MS is the bullseye.
As always, it's going to be a case of where the band sets up. Lots of potential for for mischief with this system - we're likely not to know the exact placement until the event happens, but as of the models right now, NW MS is the bullseye.
The UK model dashes the dreams of all the snow lovers in Alabama and crushes TN.
Not that I expect the UK to verify, but all this spread to illustrate that it will all depend on where the snow band sets up, where the rain/zr/snow line sets up, and how well the models handled the shallow cold air mass (IMHO, they usually don't handle it well).
Not that I expect the UK to verify, but all this spread to illustrate that it will all depend on where the snow band sets up, where the rain/zr/snow line sets up, and how well the models handled the shallow cold air mass (IMHO, they usually don't handle it well).
Clancy
Member
Grab some of those "hot hands" hand warmers or whatever they're called! They might seem silly but when my father was stuck in the snow years ago, having a few of those things in his truck probably saved his fingers from frostbite. They aren't a campfire, but they can really keep your hands warm, and you can always stick them in your hoodie or your pants pockets.
