Yeah these TV Mets in particular hold on to the bitter end to not mention wintry weather . I see Matt Grantham is at least tossing the idea out on the latest NWS forecast discussion but the local on air mets do a HUGE disservice by not at least tossing the possibility out for consumption. Then they wonder why another Snowmaggedon happens.
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Winter Weather 2023-2024
- Thread starter Taylor Campbell
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12z Nam run. 
And a sneak peak at 3km Nam.
And a sneak peak at 3km Nam.
I think it's not particularly a bad thing, just trying to me as accurate as they can. It's always very hard with winter events in the southeast. Start of slow and then pick up the closed you get and more confidence. My main thing is just mention that there's a possibility or something to float the idea so it's not out of the blue
Uncle Nasty
Member
Lots of possibilities on the table for next weekend!!
Low pressure could track over middle Tennessee and bring us rain.
One model has a big Gulf low tracking south and east of us on a perfect snow track.
If the southern track happens, all bets are off on what we get.
"Possibly" heavy snow, BUT, 1 big problem is how much cold air we can get wrapped around to us IF it takes the southern track.
As of now, Boone, NC looks to be in a sweet spot with a foot or more.
The problem is we are Chattanooga, which means we might get a HEAVY cold rain while it's dumping snow 50 miles to our north and east.
Let's see what happens!!
Sent from my SM-S916U using Tapatalk
Sent from my SM-S916U using Tapatalk
Low pressure could track over middle Tennessee and bring us rain.
One model has a big Gulf low tracking south and east of us on a perfect snow track.
If the southern track happens, all bets are off on what we get.
"Possibly" heavy snow, BUT, 1 big problem is how much cold air we can get wrapped around to us IF it takes the southern track.
As of now, Boone, NC looks to be in a sweet spot with a foot or more.
The problem is we are Chattanooga, which means we might get a HEAVY cold rain while it's dumping snow 50 miles to our north and east.
Let's see what happens!!
Sent from my SM-S916U using Tapatalk
Sent from my SM-S916U using Tapatalk
Right, I think we are in agreement. I’m not saying they necessarily should go all in but they definitely need to introduce the possibility and worst case scenario of what could happen and not say it will but at least inform the unwashed masses of what might be coming together as well.
JPWX
Member
A snow event next weekend before a severe weather threat. Gotta love it! Unfortunately, none of the global models really show it. Granted though the Canadian did show it on prior runs.
- Moderator
- #87
Wes Wyatt at Fox-6 has pulled the trigger. From his Facebook:
SNOW CHANCES WEDNESDAY? Some of the guidance continues to indicate wintry precipitation could mix with the rain in areas north and east. Forecast sounding data supports this possibility, especially in the higher terrain north and east. Surface temperatures will be above freezing. Need to see more guidance today, but it could get interesting if more data starts jumping on board with this solution.
SNOW CHANCES WEDNESDAY? Some of the guidance continues to indicate wintry precipitation could mix with the rain in areas north and east. Forecast sounding data supports this possibility, especially in the higher terrain north and east. Surface temperatures will be above freezing. Need to see more guidance today, but it could get interesting if more data starts jumping on board with this solution.
18z hrrr is awful on the temps. No way any snow falls in the temps it's showing lol.
But from the last event the HRRR eventually conformed to what the NAM was saying as we got closer so we will see.
But from the last event the HRRR eventually conformed to what the NAM was saying as we got closer so we will see.
Timhsv
Member
Thought I'd sneak this moment in Alabama history on here. Hope it's ok moderators.*
ON THIS DATE IN 1964: Bear Bryant said that the only thing that could have messed up his eighth ranked Alabama team’s chances in the 1964 Sugar Bowl against 6th ranked Ole Miss in New Orleans would be a freak snowstorm. Well, much to his chagrin, it actually did snow the night before the January 1st game in the Crescent City. It snowed an amazing 4 1/2 inches. (Alabama won the game by a 12-7 margin.)The “New Year’s Eve Snow” in the Deep South also dumped an incredible 19.2 inches at Muscle Shoals (still a record for the state of Alabama), 17.1 inches of snow on Huntsville. Much of Northwest Alabama was buried under 15-17 inches of snow. Roofs and awnings collapsed under the weight of the snow. The snow paralyzed much of the area for up to three days, closing schools and businesses. To the south, 15 inches of snow fell at Meridian, and over 10 inches at Bay. St. Louis MS. Mobile picked up two inches. Birmingham picked up 8.40 inches of snow, the fifth biggest snowstorm in the city’s history.
ON THIS DATE IN 1964: Bear Bryant said that the only thing that could have messed up his eighth ranked Alabama team’s chances in the 1964 Sugar Bowl against 6th ranked Ole Miss in New Orleans would be a freak snowstorm. Well, much to his chagrin, it actually did snow the night before the January 1st game in the Crescent City. It snowed an amazing 4 1/2 inches. (Alabama won the game by a 12-7 margin.)The “New Year’s Eve Snow” in the Deep South also dumped an incredible 19.2 inches at Muscle Shoals (still a record for the state of Alabama), 17.1 inches of snow on Huntsville. Much of Northwest Alabama was buried under 15-17 inches of snow. Roofs and awnings collapsed under the weight of the snow. The snow paralyzed much of the area for up to three days, closing schools and businesses. To the south, 15 inches of snow fell at Meridian, and over 10 inches at Bay. St. Louis MS. Mobile picked up two inches. Birmingham picked up 8.40 inches of snow, the fifth biggest snowstorm in the city’s history.
18z Nam again with a big snow for central and north Alabama.
A Lot of spread between models. The nam did good with the last event though.
A Lot of spread between models. The nam did good with the last event though.
JPWX
Member
I don't know what to think about the NAM. Certainly wishing it would happen, but without global model support, I'm not so sure. I mean I definitely can see a wintry mix for parts of North/Central MS into Alabama, but not certain on accumulations. @JBishopwx your thoughts?
Like to see the high res models tonight. Right now Jackson just expecting a mix.
NAM seems to be standing mostly on its own. 3K NAM doesn't show nearly as much precip that far north, so there's basically no accumulation. This does look like it could have bust potential tho, either side. In the areas where the 3K Nam shows some snow, it is basically sitting at 31-32 degrees from 5k feet down to the surface. Any drift either way could be more snow, or all rain.
This upcoming pattern change is finally going to bring some real winter to me out here in Utah it looks like. Our mountain snowpack here right now in early January is about the same as mid-November last winter. We've had some moderately cold temperatures, but almost no precipitation lately. I think I've only had about 2" of snow so far this winter. We have a chance of snow Thursday, and then Friday night - Monday has 3-4 rounds of snow likely.
This upcoming pattern change is finally going to bring some real winter to me out here in Utah it looks like. Our mountain snowpack here right now in early January is about the same as mid-November last winter. We've had some moderately cold temperatures, but almost no precipitation lately. I think I've only had about 2" of snow so far this winter. We have a chance of snow Thursday, and then Friday night - Monday has 3-4 rounds of snow likely.
JPWX
Member
Thought I would share this with y'all. So I'm good friends with Chief Meteorologist Hunter Williams at KVUE in Austin, TX. We video chat each week. During our most recent chat, he asked me if there's any particular phase of ENSO where the Deep South is favored to see more snow than normal and also wanted to know what the Gulf water temps were running during the event. So last night I created this spreadsheet for him. I only did the winter events that impacted and/or had impacts on the Deep South/Southeast region. I was very intrigued by my findings on this. Ocean temp data only goes back to 1982.
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The GEFS trend doesn’t seem too thrilled.
JasonL
Member
I noticed that also.
Curious to hear more about y'all's conclusions on this. Heavy on the El-Nino examples, and warm gulf waters?
JPWX
Member
Well, it's interesting how most occurred during Neutral ENSO than El Nino/La Nina. Plus this current El Nino is expected to weaken towards Neutral through winter with transition to La Nina by Spring (March). The current Gulf SST matches up nicely with the Neutral ENSO events.
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This would make a pretty great analysis to expand on - considering factors like the intensity and geographical spread of each snow event, or the total snow cover in the region for the ENSO period, etc.
It looks like *somewhere* in the US is going to get a strong arctic shot next weekend. There’s a lot of cold air building over western Canada, where it goes is the question.
Latest GFS drops it in the western US, with a very large area of -30 to -50 degree anomalies. Canadian keeps it mostly bottled up, and shunts it to the NE. Euro (00z at least) drops it in the western US similar to the GFS.
Latest GFS drops it in the western US, with a very large area of -30 to -50 degree anomalies. Canadian keeps it mostly bottled up, and shunts it to the NE. Euro (00z at least) drops it in the western US similar to the GFS.
