Looks like winter weather is back in South Central Texas but nothing like last year's apocalyspe.
FXUS64 KEWX 310011
AFDEWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
611 PM CST Sun Jan 30 2022
LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Daytime Tuesday begins with most areas seeing a light and variable or
light northeast breeze and some wrap-around
moisture possibly
holding the clouds and perhaps some patchy
fog in place. With clouds
to decrease by midday and a
zonal flow pattern aloft over TX, we
should get a good day of warming with highs in the 70s almost area-
wide.
An amplifying pattern
upstream brings a quick return of overnight
cloudiness over the area Tuesday night, and then a dramatic weather
change by late Wednesday when an arctic
front arrives. Wednesday
afternoon should see a partial
fropa into the Hill Country to leave
us with a good sized Max T
gradient from north to south. We trended
warmer with these maxes as the 12Z deterministic runs deepened the
upstream trough to signal a stronger and slower moving upper low.
This will also translate to the overnight temperatures to reverse
slightly, the cooler trend that was noted for the 00Z forecast
cycle. Another shifting trend is that
QPF output continues to grow
for the first 18 hours behind the
front, and that could further slow
down the rate of cooling at least before the very cold
dew point
temperatures arrive after daybreak Thursday.
Thus while we a showing slightly increased confidence in the freezing
line advancing south to set the scenario for a winter mix Thursday
morning, predominant precipitation types of rain and freezing rain
versus sleet or potentially some light snow at the end of the precip
event hasn`t changed much. Overall amounts of
QPF are trending
wetter, but this could also wind up compressing the time window for
rain to change over to a mix before the conveyor belt of moderate to
heavy precip rates pull to the east early Thursday. Thus we`ll
continue to leave our ice accumulation amount forecast minimized
until there becomes a more consistent timing of the change-over.
The 12Z model cycle continues to so sharp drying late Thursday and no
significant trailing
dynamics to move over our part of TX for any
potential snowfall of significance. However, some silent 10 percents
are offered in the
PoPs to suggest a low potential going into
Thursday night. Friday night continues to be a good bet for a
widespread hard
freeze. The Friday high temps are forecast to creep
above Freezing before another hard
freeze settles in Friday night. A
weak disturbance in the
westerlies could set up a brief wintry mix
opportunity Saturday, but there aren`t enough model groupings to
warrant any mention of weather chances outside of some light rain
showers through Sunday.