Tropical Storm Tropical Storm Florence

[Taylor Campbell]

Just off Africa’s coast, and will be named very soon.

 

[South AL Wx]

From NHC:

Special Message from NHC Issued 30 Aug 2018 14:08 UTC
NHC will initiate advisories at 11 am EDT on Potential Tropical Cyclone Six, located east-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands.

 

[JayF]

I went ahead and made this post sticky as the forecast projection moves this up to a Hurricane in the next couple of days.

 

[JayF]

 

[JayF]

Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1100 AM AST Thu Aug 30 2018

The area of low pressure that moved off the coast of Africa has
continued to become better organized, and is producing a large
area of disturbed weather with gusty winds, but currently lacks a
well-defined center. Environmental conditions are favorable for
additional development, and a tropical depression or a tropical
storm could form an any time today or Friday. Given the high
chances that this system could bring tropical storm conditions to a
portion of the southern Cabo Verde Islands, advisories have been
initiated on Potential Tropical Cyclone Six. Most of the intensity
guidance calls for strengthening and so does the NHC forecast.

The system is embedded within the easterly trades and this flow
pattern will steer the disturbance toward the west or west-
northwest during the next few days. By the end of the forecast
period, a turn toward the northwest should begin as the system
reaches a weakness in the subtropical high. This is consistent with
the output of the global models.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Florence’s forecast track is adjusting westward significantly.

 

[WesL]

Florence made it Hurricane status.

 

[South AL Wx]

...FLORENCE BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE...
...FIRST OF THE 2018 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON...

Recent satellite imagery indicates that Florence is still
strengthening and is now a major hurricane. Maximum sustained
winds are estimated to be 120 mph (195 km/h). This increase in
intensity will be reflected in the forecast issued with the 1100 AM
AST (1500 UTC) advisory package.

Florence will definitely be one to watch in the long-term for the East Coast.

 

[WesL]

Florence is starting to get some East Coast attention. Spotted a story about it this morning on a Virginia station.

 

[rolltide_130]

The GFS is on drugs, to put it lightly.

 

[Kory]

I’d hold the horses about a U.S. threat. Yeah, the media is already hyping it due to a 8 day model solution, but there is a HUGE uncertainty.

 

[KoD]

Already up to a major hurricane, that was unexpected and quick.

 

[Brent]

this could be a real interesting week...

 

[WesL]

Cat 4!

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 46.6W
ABOUT 1110 MI...1790 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 1295 MI...2080 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.15 INCHES

 

[rolltide_130]

Oh jeez.. wait until the national media gets ahold of the 18z GFS run.. that would be a disaster for the Washington-Baltimore corridor.

 

[WesL]

...FLORENCE WEAKENING FOR NOW BUT STILL A STRONG HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.1N 47.9W
ABOUT 1060 MI...1705 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 1170 MI...1885 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES


Source:NHC

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Moving west now. Her she comes.

 

[WesL]

<insert Jaws theme here>

...FLORENCE WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE BUT STILL EXPECTED TO
RESTRENGTHEN OVER THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.1N 50.7W
ABOUT 925 MI...1490 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 985 MI...1590 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES

 

[TuckerTerry]

Carolinas seem to be directly in the cross hairs.

 

[South AL Wx]

From the latest NHC discussion on Florence:

2. The risk of other direct impacts associated with Florence along
the U.S. East Coast next week has increased. However, there is
still very large uncertainty in model forecasts of Florence's track
beyond day 5, making it too soon to determine the exact location,
magnitude, and timing of these impacts. Interests near and along
the U.S. East Coast should monitor the progress of Florence through
the weekend and ensure they have their hurricane plans in place.

The NHC official forecast at 120 hours is calling for a 130 mph category 4 hurricane. Hoping the models trend back more toward out to sea, and not the other way.