I have family in North Mississippi. Please stop it.
Just kidding.
-
Welcome to TalkWeather! We see you lurking around TalkWeather! Take the extra step and join us today to view attachments, see less ads and maybe even join the discussion. CLICK TO JOIN TALKWEATHER -
April 2024 Weather Video of the Month Post your nominations now!
Svr Wx threat April 1-April 2 2024
- Thread starter KevinH
- Start date
Just kidding.
Would definitely agree - that slowing trend of the main trough has really allowed Tuesday to look quite concerning in some aspects as the best wind fields coincide with peak heating over the Midwest. In fact, without trying to sound too dramatic, the general trough shape, low placement and available moisture isn't a million miles of the March 2nd 2012 outbreak (though I would be surprised at this point if we saw something of that magnitude).
I think its reasonable to assume a mostly discrete mode given the nature of forcing - and in terms of parameters, the NAM is undoubtedly the most aggressive at this stage, showing a scenario which would favour intense-violent tornadoes:
It is most definitely an outlier compared to other models on this front, likely because the latest 06z run seemed to uptrend the LLJ significantly - but other models were not too far off (GFS, ECM). As of right now - I think the tornado risk is present, but very uncertain. However, these next few days should be watched very closely as it would really not take much to push this towards significant outbreak territory. On the other hand its possible the few models with a much weaker LLJ and different trough placements (UKMET, ICON) may well be correct.
Clancy
Member
Models continue to trend more favorable for tornadoes Tuesday.
Clancy
Member
CIPS honing in on MS/AL/GA for a severe threat Tuesday. CSU is similar, but extends the threat up into the TN and OH Valleys. Available models show increasingly favorable wind fields, which would likely support a tornado threat with the forecast robust QLCS forecast to move trough Tuesday evening. Sounding attached from near Anniston, AL.
JPWX
Member
Yeah we're gonna be expanding the Slight Risk further south and back west. Wouldn't rule out a Enhanced Risk for parts of MS into Northern Alabama
cincywx
Member
while i suspect most of the threat on tuesday will occur east of cincinnati, it's certainly got my ears perked up
Clancy
Member
12Z NAM, with 3km coming into range, shows significantly more discrete presentation. Sounding from NW GA/NE AL border.
In terms of trough shape and placement, I'm really starting to think that (concerningly) 4/16/1998 is quite a good analog to Tuesday's threat:
I still doubt we will see something of that magnitude (in addition to the earlier comparison to 2012), but with that positive tilt trough enhanced flow over the Midwest - does go to show Tuesday has got concerning potential. A lot depends on how that outflow boundary from earlier storms develops (as the HRRR and other cams show) which could cut off the northern half of the warm sector. Additionally, some models were showing much weaker low level shear for Tuesday, which would be another big limiting factor (though its worth noting that going off ERA reanalysis, the 1998 event didnt seem to have overly impressive low level shear either). Definitely going to watch for model trends/changes with regards to those two factors over the next day and a bit.
I still doubt we will see something of that magnitude (in addition to the earlier comparison to 2012), but with that positive tilt trough enhanced flow over the Midwest - does go to show Tuesday has got concerning potential. A lot depends on how that outflow boundary from earlier storms develops (as the HRRR and other cams show) which could cut off the northern half of the warm sector. Additionally, some models were showing much weaker low level shear for Tuesday, which would be another big limiting factor (though its worth noting that going off ERA reanalysis, the 1998 event didnt seem to have overly impressive low level shear either). Definitely going to watch for model trends/changes with regards to those two factors over the next day and a bit.
JPWX
Member
That ended up being a High Risk event for North MS and North Alabama as well.
Clancy
Member
The trusty juxtaposition in force for Tuesday - that the wind fields may be weaker where instability is stronger, as opposed to the February setups where the issue is vice versa. That being said, the shear still looks more-than-adequate for tornadoes, especially towards the OH Valley, and we'll have to watch carefully for any shortwaves that may enhance shear.
SmokeEater
Member
10% hatched tor dropped down to 5% in the new day 2.
Sent from my SM-S901U using Tapatalk
Sent from my SM-S901U using Tapatalk
This could become a pretty substantial event in the Ohio Valley if that wave stays coherent through the day and gets some phasing from the northern stream. Prior convection also a concern.
Haha
Tanner
Member
I love Mitch West, such a stand up guy.
Clancy
Member
I mean, I think a lot of the murmurs around Tuesday have a lot more to do with model presentation across the board than the singular features of the NAM, with the Euro being more aggressive for this setup.
warneagle
Member
This at the very end of the 12z 3km NAM, but I pulled this sounding from the Portsmouth, OH area. The surface winds are a lot more backed than they are further to the west earlier in the day which is definitely a red flag.
Clancy
Member
Updated CSU probs for Tuesday.
Clancy
Member
15Z SREF came in rather hot for the TN/AL/GA triple-point Tuesday evening.
TornadoFan17
Member
I'm currently a 1st year meteorology student. Is there any reason as to why CSU has drastically different risk areas from the SPC?
