Southeast Svr Wx threat April 8-11, 2024

[Tempestas Tonitrua]

Yeah, think the safe bet here so far is a pretty heavy rain maker - maybe a few severe storms if any sort of convective system forms.

I definitely don’t believe we’re going to be having the same conversations about this system that we did about last Tuesday’s.

 

[KevinH]

Yeah, think the safe bet here so far is a pretty heavy rain maker - maybe a few severe storms if any sort of convective system forms.

I definitely don’t believe we’re going to be having the same conversations about this system that we did about last Tuesday’s.

Same… I have not seen anything to say otherwise… YET

hahahahhahhahaahha

 

[JPWX]

Total 10 day rainfall amounts off UKMET, GFS, Euro, and NOAA BLEND

 

[warneagle]

Beefy MCS?

Oh good, I’m flying back from Orlando to Atlanta on Wednesday afternoon, great timing

 

[wx_guy]

It's 84 hours out (so Wednesday afternoon), so I'd take it with a grain of salt, but here's the latest NAM box sounding for a large area in Louisiana/Mississippi under the gun. Large curved hodographs, DPTS in the 70s, 2500+ CAPE, 900 DCAPE, LR near 6, and STP/SCP/SHIP parameters pretty high. The GFS/Euro don't seem sold on a threat of this caliber, so it could well be the NAM doing NAMmy things. But interesting to look at.

 

[KevinH]

 

[KevinH]

It's 84 hours out (so Wednesday afternoon), so I'd take it with a grain of salt, but here's the latest NAM box sounding for a large area in Louisiana/Mississippi under the gun. Large curved hodographs, DPTS in the 70s, 2500+ CAPE, 900 DCAPE, LR near 6, and STP/SCP/SHIP parameters pretty high. The GFS/Euro don't seem sold on a threat of this caliber, so it could well be the NAM doing NAMmy things. But interesting to look at.




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A related post from Twitter:

 

[Clancy]

CIPS and CSU probs for D4.

 

[Jpgood97]

Why does the threat always have to be on a Wednesday?

 

[UncleJuJu98]

CIPS and CSU probs for D4.
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Dang son!

Got my attention lol

 

[UncleJuJu98]

STP is pretty darn high Wednesday afternoon. As well as really good EHI numbers.

 

[JPWX]

Wednesday could be much bigger deal than previously thought. 12z NAM CWASP

 

[wx_guy]

Yeah, the more I'm seeing coming in about Wednesday the more it doesn't look good. Here's the HazCast machine-learning algorithm, showing a > 20% chance of a tornado within 25 mi in LA/MS. I'm suspecting a 30% ENH area from the SPC if trends continue.

 

[JPWX]

Yeah, the more I'm seeing coming in about Wednesday the more it doesn't look good. Here's the HazCast machine-learning algorithm, showing a > 20% chance of a tornado within 25 mi in LA/MS. I'm suspecting a 30% ENH area from the SPC if trends continue.


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I've got to subscribe to that! Soon!

 

[KevinH]

Wednesday could be much bigger deal than previously thought. 12z NAM CWASP

Uh …. Do you have the frames after this? I want to see how the values change as the system moves across Dixie

 

[JPWX]

Uh …. Do you have the frames after this? I want to see how the values change as the system moves across Dixie

Here you go

 

[KevinH]

Here you go

Thanks! Is it just me or does that system not move much in 3 hours???

What website is that?

 

[JPWX]

Thanks! Is it just me or does that system not move much in 3 hours???

What website is that?

Here it is: https://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/MODEL/WXmodel.php?&model=gfs212&run=2021031400&map=CWASP&fhr=12

You're welcome. Yep which is why we're getting flooded as well this week here in North and Central MS

 

[KevinH]

Here it is: https://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/MODEL/WXmodel.php?&model=gfs212&run=2021031400&map=CWASP&fhr=12

You're welcome. Yep which is why we're getting flooded as well this week here in North and Central MS

Flooding is bad, but I don’t want to imagine slow moving tornadoes either…

 

[wx_guy]

So the 18z NAM (Oh, I accidentally sampled the 12z...but the 18z is crazy too) has some absolutely nutty parameters. I can't even think most of these will verify, but it's not a good look for Wednesday.This is for far northeast Louisiana (point sounding) for Wednesday afternoon/evening. The STP is near the high-end of even the EF4+ range.





For my own infotainment purposes, I've also been developing a model (pretty basic compared to some of the more advanced AI's like STORM-NET, but still interesting to me) to predict tornadic supercells. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to realize the sounding above is off the walls high-end, but it's nice to see my model does call for a SIG tornado (EF2+) if this were to verify. I'll probably be playing with this model some during the events this week to see how it performs on real-time data.