Severe Weather Threat - November 29th-30th, 2022

[JPWX]

NWS Jackson mentioning potential for a long duration event.

 

[Austin Dawg]

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Well, it's "everything is an outbreak" Reed, but in this case he has a point.

 

[JBishopwx]

 

[UK_EF4]

Wow. 06z NAM continues to look even more favourable and if verified, would likely be a major outbreak. Fortunately, ECM and UKMET are together with a much less favourable look (LLJ displaced far East with less rich moisture) and GFS has similar wind fields to NAM but instability is more of an issue as its displaced further W. The trend is definitely concerning though.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Wow. 06z NAM continues to look even more favourable and if verified, would likely be a major outbreak. Fortunately, ECM and UKMET are together with a much less favourable look (LLJ displaced far East with less rich moisture) and GFS has similar wind fields to NAM but instability is more of an issue as its displaced further W. The trend is definitely concerning though.

Very concerning look still even on euro … sounds like a big chase day incoming ….

 

[UK_EF4]

Very concerning look still even on euro … sounds like a big chase day incoming ….

Yeah. The precipitation signal on the NAM is both present and discrete, so I am curious for when HRRR and NAM 3km runs come into range. The potential is certainly very high

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

latest guidance is correct, i would not sleep on this threat if i were in nw alabama now even.

 

[KevinH]

latest guidance is correct, i would not sleep on this threat if i were in nw alabama now even.

What IS the latest guidance? What are you seeing?

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

What IS the latest guidance? What are you seeing?

a strong lower level jet over night for one

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

PDS soundsings now showing over nw miss. and se arkansas into sw tenn. wish i could post them.

 

[JBishopwx]

Not sure anyone has mentioned it already, but Little Rock Radar will be down next week....

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Not sure anyone has mentioned it already, but Little Rock Radar will be down next week....View attachment 15611

bad timing for sure...

 

[CheeselandSkies]

I would hope they seriously reconsider taking it offline until after Tuesday seeing as their CWA is, while not perhaps the absolute bullseye (although that really is yet TBD with the shifting model solutions), definitely at significant risk during this event.

It's one thing if they'd already taken the radar apart and this threat cropped up, but to start the maintenance when they know a significant severe weather threat is coming up the very next day seems...irresponsible at best.

In fact, while as of even yesterday evening I thought this was gonna be an E TX/W LA event, SPC is thinking much further east than that, almost overlapping with last year's 12/10 event except perhaps a little further south. Of course the storm of the day then got its start in the LZK CWA.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

I would hope they seriously reconsider taking it offline until after Tuesday seeing as their CWA is, while not perhaps the absolute bullseye (although that really is yet TBD with the shifting model solutions), definitely at significant risk during this event.

In fact, while as of even yesterday evening I thought this was gonna be an E TX/W LA event, SPC is thinking much further east than that, almost overlapping with last year's 12/10 event except perhaps a little further south. Of course the storm of the day then got its start in the LZK CWA.

bulls eye now appears se arkansas, nw miss , sw tenn region

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

things hold on model data. im heading towards pinebluff arkansas to start, then work my way back towards memphis close to home. i have to work next day

 

[CheeselandSkies]

NAM even has me getting into the warm sector of the main surface low with this setup, although dews are only in the mid-upper 40s. Still though, this event also bears watching for significant tornado potential much further north than originally thought, as was observed with 12/10/21 and 2/28/2017 for example.

 

[JBishopwx]

I would hope they seriously reconsider taking it offline until after Tuesday seeing as their CWA is, while not perhaps the absolute bullseye (although that really is yet TBD with the shifting model solutions), definitely at significant risk during this event.

It's one thing if they'd already taken the radar apart and this threat cropped up, but to start the maintenance when they know a significant severe weather threat is coming up the very next day seems...irresponsible at best.

In fact, while as of even yesterday evening I thought this was gonna be an E TX/W LA event, SPC is thinking much further east than that, almost overlapping with last year's 12/10 event except perhaps a little further south. Of course the storm of the day then got its start in the LZK CWA.

The decision will have to come from the national office from what I've read

 

[JPWX]

Already strong wording in the Day 3 Discussion with "tornado outbreak will be possible across parts of the lower to mid MS valley if the current forecast parameters hold"

 

[SmokeEater]

Really good discussion about the upcoming event here from Trey Greenwood.



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