Severe Weather Threat - June 17th-18th, 2023

[buckeye05]

Beautiful rope out near Hamlin

 

[OHWX97]

About as picturesque as it gets.

 

[Tanner]

About as picturesque as it gets.

June really delivering

 

[buckeye05]

Beaver, OK cell is trying. Keeps spinning up funnels but no ground contact yet.

Edit: Getting messy on radar. May lose organization soon. I don't think the Hamlin cell is done yet though, and the one near Canadian has potential too.

 

[buckeye05]

Whoa. What is going on north of Melvin?

 

[OHWX97]

Destructive straight line winds and a possible tornado are plowing through Dodge City, KS at the moment. KDDC velocity data show winds exceeding 100mph only a couple hundred feet above ground level.

 

[TheSuckZone]

Destructive straight line winds and a possible tornado are plowing through Dodge City, KS at the moment. KDDC velocity data show winds exceeding 100mph only a couple hundred feet above ground level.

Thought maybe the radar there took a hit but it's just my GRLevel3 being sketchy per usual

 

[JPWX]

Here's the 23z HRRR, 00z HRRR, 01z HRRR, and 00z 3k NAM

 

[UncleJuJu98]

The simulated radar looks pretty nasty tonight a MCS/derecho look with embedded supercells

 

[Clancy]

I'm very many confusions over the 2% tornado probs for today.

 

[JBishopwx]

CSU for today:

 

[Taylor Campbell]

CSU and HREF guidance have come in strong with the tornado potential over MS.

 

[Clancy]

NAM and HRRR consistent in showing a robust corridor of favorable tornado parameters in MS which sustain themselves well after dark.

 

[JPWX]

NAM and HRRR consistent in showing a robust corridor of favorable tornado parameters in MS which sustain themselves well after dark.
View attachment 20682View attachment 20683

Great! Monroe County and my house are in it. Never fails!

 

[JPWX]

12z 3km NAM and 12z HRRR plus soundings off each in Monroe County MS at the same time as the STP values above from @Clancy.

 

[Clancy]

Big ol' hail and strong winds in a cell east of Jackson this morning. Have also seen some talk about this morning's MCS tempering the threat later today. Not so sure about that, particularly with regard to MS, but we will see.

 

[JPWX]

Big ol' hail and strong winds in a cell east of Jackson this morning. Have also seen some talk about this morning's MCS tempering the threat later today. Not so sure about that, particularly with regard to MS, but we will see.
View attachment 20690

If this were March or April, I would say yes to the tempering. But since this is June and we're in the Summer months, you will have a rapid surge of warm/moist air very quickly. In fact, your already seeing a surge of high CAPE values in Texas. The RAP model has values of 2500 to 4000 back over much of MS in 6 hours.

 

[Clancy]

If this were March or April, I would say yes to the tempering. But since this is June and we're in the Summer months, you will have a rapid surge of warm/moist air very quickly. In fact, your already seeing a surge of high CAPE values in Texas. The RAP model has values of 2500 to 4000 back over much of MS in 6 hours.

Agree; Deep South summer sun can do crazy things.

 

[JBishopwx]

Tornado Warning for Clarke County in MS until 11:15am

 

[OHWX97]

A destructive severe storm directly impacted the Tulsa metro overnight. I was expecting to lose data from KINX at any moment, yet it somehow remained fully operational during the passage of the storm. Unsurprisingly, very impressive winds measurements, widespread damage and outages have been reported across much of the metro.


Additionally, another powerful storm dropped a number of tornadoes in Arkansas around the same time. The one that developed south of London and dissipated as it neared Russellville went unwarned as far as I'm concerned.