If I was hypothetically the SPC outlook forecaster early Saturday morning for that Day 1 outlook, and the short-term model data for the coming afternoon and evening was looking like what the GFS was showing 24-48+ hours ago, I would've been drawing a 45% hatched tornado area across central Oklahoma up into south central Kansas. Since then, there's been a shift toward the pieces of energy within the trough being very slightly disjointed and the trough being a bit more meridional. That is today's GFS taking a step toward the Euro and some of the others with the synoptics, and the GFS has always been the most violent looking of the bunch with the Saturday setup. I don't think this trough geometry adjustment precludes a supercell-driven sigtor threat on Saturday by any means, but once you put that synoptic geometry concern with the potential for earlier initiation and how that synoptic geometry may cause adjacent updrafts to rain into each other and maybe somewhat more efficient cold pooling potential from earlier convection before deep-layer shear really increases (which is now delayed slightly with the meridional trough geometry), it's not too hard to see that the ceiling of this event has been walked back a little. I still think it's firmly a Moderate Risk and maybe even PDS watches... and if we can keep storms spaced, it may be capable of more than that... but just 24-36 hours ago, some of the data (and not even considering the NAM from yesterday) had this setup on the same caliber as 5/24/2011 and some of the infamous multiple-F4+ outbreaks of OK/KS from the 1990s. That's not the case anymore.