Kory
Member
Haha yeah. I hate these sneaky early morning events.Sounds like we have the same train of thought...
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Haha yeah. I hate these sneaky early morning events.Sounds like we have the same train of thought...
Sounds like jan 23 2012South Central MS and AL....do not ignore tonight and tomorrow morning's potential. Today never looked cellular given the upper level flow is SSW (parallel to the boundary). That shortwave will lift NE tonight and permit a more SW/WSW flow over the narrow warm sector and will permit the QLCS to break up into cells. Some of the shear values are eye opening for overnight....
I feel like storms will have a bit of trouble becoming surface based.I will say I am becoming more concerned about the threat for Alabama, west of I-65 in central and northern areas. I could see one or two storms becoming tornadic. The spatial and time parameters are limited, but a couple or 3 supercells are possible..
That is probably the biggest precluding factor to a larger event, but rapid WAA right ahead of the boundary should allow enough destabilization to get surface based storms along and south of I-20/59....I feel like storms will have a bit of trouble becoming surface based.
they may, but there is also a chance they briefly will for just enough timeI feel like storms will have a bit of trouble becoming surface based.
I still can't get over how unfounded that 15% TOR and mention of tornadic supercells was, especially after several back to back overzealous outlooks that did not verify. An outlook like today's should have never been issued with shear vectors parallel to the boundary. I always thought that was a fairly basic concept. This in combination with the April 5 bust makes it seem like the SPC has just been going all out when there is a setup with good thermo, and just sort of glazing over obviously unfavorable kinematics. I just don't get it.
I agree. It looks like there may be a window.they may, but there is also a chance they briefly will for just enough time
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How does Saturday and Sundays threat look ATM
Looks like another severe wx threat on Sun, including possibilities of tornadoes. Not a big threat at the moment, but bears watching. Instability Params look on the weak side, but may be underplayed.
Agreed CAPE values look meager but SRH values are very high
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I think it is the case they rather have the public aware and nothing big happen, compared to the reverse, as seen with Huffines from 6 years ago on the archive thread that is running. He got destroyed for underplaying what was about to happen on April 27. Regardless, the SPC has been overplaying way too much this year and would have been fine sticking with an Enhanced risk at best today. That is why this forum, among others, are great to read through leading up to and during an event. I don't trust one source as the absolute on what is going to happen. I know very little on what goes on behind the scenes or keep track, but I wonder who or how many people come together at the SPC when they put out their convective outlooks.
This is near Birmingham later tonight..
http://soundings.pivotalweather.com/sounding_images/hrrr_2017042618_015_33.55--86.81.png
Fortunately, that is right before the front, so those conditions do not last too long.Ouch... hope that doesn't verify
A lot of times in Dixie when relying on forcing from the boundary and not getting height falls across the whole warm sector with discrete convection, a lot of the dynamics don't get used. But, there is definitely an increasing threat overnight....