Severe Weather Threat 4/25-4/26, 2024 - (Thursday, Friday)

[CheeselandSkies]

All I know is, I'm chasing Friday (currently targeting the triple point wherever that sets up near the IA/NE border region) and likely Saturday as well, although my range will be somewhat limited by having to be back for a family event on Sunday; however a broad area is starting to look potentially good including from northern Kansas to parts of the Midwest, will reevaluate as it gets closer.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

All I know is, I'm chasing Friday (currently targeting the triple point wherever that sets up near the IA/NE border region) and likely Saturday as well, although my range will be somewhat limited by having to be back for a family event on Sunday; however a broad area is starting to look potentially good including from northern Kansas to parts of the Midwest, will reevaluate as it gets closer.

Wish I could get out there , I’m chomping at the bit to go ….I got a really close friend lives in Oklahoma City , so I have place crash lol

 

[lake.effect]

Obviously this is the nam we’re talking about but overall just more reason to take this upcoming threat seriously.
I’m waiting with bated breath for the hrrr, Fv3, 3km nam, and WRFs to come into range for a higher confidence judgement of the environment before I at least pull the alarm.

lolwat
that is a textbook hodograph for a strong/violent tornado

 

[jiharris0220]

That’s a dry line if I ever saw one. (Hrrr, 0z 26hr)

 

[CheeselandSkies]

End of its range but 0Z HRRR is...something for Friday in SW IA/NW MO. Multiple simulated supercells with UH swaths tracking through this environment from 21Z-00Z Saturday.

 

[jiharris0220]

Classic cold core low set up showing discrete to quasi discrete line of cells displaying the possibility of long trackers.
The run ends at 7pm with a still strengthening low level jet further south, so that can be left to interpretation until next run.

 

[TornadoFan]

 

[Muwx]

HRRR trying to develop a lone supercell in the NEOK/SWMO/SEKS area Friday night with PDS tor soundings out in front of it

 

[warneagle]

The tornado threat will obviously grab the headlines but this could also be a major flooding/flash flooding event.

 

[TornadoFan]

 

[andyhb]

Tomorrow looks very volatile up in NE/IA and south towards KC. Good signal across guidance for multiple supercells within an extreme low level buoyancy/strong low level shear environment. Wouldn’t be surprised to see a MDT risk eventually for this.

 

[TornadoFan]

Quite a bit of clearing ongoing across western Kansas.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Worth noting, on the 13Z update SPC did bifurcate today's Enhanced risk and shrink the 10% hatched tornado probability to a small part of Kansas due to capping concerns over western Oklahoma/the northeast Texas panhandle.

 

[lake.effect]

KC and Omaha appear to be under the gun for a localized but substantial tornado threat tomorrow.

 

[warneagle]

Worth noting, on the 13Z update SPC did bifurcate today's Enhanced risk and shrink the 10% hatched tornado probability to a small part of Kansas due to capping concerns over western Oklahoma/the northeast Texas panhandle.

Yeah a couple of the globals were on that earlier this week (been too busy at work to do much model watching the last couple of days).

 

[warneagle]

DDC is locked and loaded

 

[Jacob]

It’s an extremely small corridor of extremely favorable conditions, but it looks like quite an afternoon/evening along I-70 in western Kansas. Wouldn’t completely surprise me to see a violent tornado right along that front/boundary that is setting up this afternoon per the models.

 

[rdtony]

Models seem to be locking in an upper-end threat materializing in central OK/KS on the 26th. After that, there's quite a bit of disagreement.

Check out these soundings from the latest GFS and GDPS runs, around OKC metro on Friday afternoon:
View attachment 25543
View attachment 25542

UKMET appears to have an even higher end parameter space at the same time/location but I can't grab the sounding.

Kind of a hockey stick looking wind shear profile - wonder if there will be strong mesos.

 

[TheSuckZone]

It is DDC so we'll see

 

[TornadoFan]

And the SPC site is down.