ashtonlemleywx
Member
I'm all in on tmrws storm chase. Headed to Arkansas in the morning.
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Confirmed tornado now.New hook on the northern storm.
Yeah got my eye on that latest hrrr wanting go pretty crazy on discrete super cells … see they can cross the Ms. River
Yep. Big day today. Glad I'm getting off early today, I think will see some nasty stuff on radar this afternoon/evening.10% hatched tor for a large area now, includes Little Rock and Fort Smith. A lot of AR mets are taking this very seriously so far.
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What's the chances of this affecting western outskirts of St. Louis? I was supposed to be at a business conference there starting Thursday, but couldn't make it. I'm in leadership, though, so if there's a possibility I need to give them a heads up on what to do in case.
Following up on this since I realized I never did; definitely tell your people out there to stay weather aware this afternoon/evening. A lot of runs of the HRRR have been putting some intense simulated supercells through the St. Louis area then. Tornado threat is a bit uncertain there IMO due to straight-line hodographs on most of the forecast soundings in that vicinity, although there is a decent amount of 0-3KM CAPE. At the least, significant large hail would be a threat.
*Actually, St. Louis is under a severe thunderstorm watch right now, with some warned cells to the west, although they look to be weakening at the moment**
**Edit again; that could just be because St. Louis radar is down (naturally) and KSGF is only kissing them at about 20,000' and up.