Severe Weather 2023

[MichelleH]

That is the system I was alluding to in the GFS showing up down the road earlier this week. It just decided to go. a little bit further south every time I've run the model sense. When I first was looking at it. It came on around Corpus Christi and was hugging the coastline until turning north, and coming straight up Mississippi and Alabama. I don't know that we're gonna get severe weather out of it but we're definitely going to get something.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Marginal risk out for the Florida peninsula if a slight is outlined and I'm confident a higher than average spin up risk is going to happen I'll probably make a thread. I'll keep my eye on it though.

There’s a lot of moving pieces to this setup lol. The steep mid level lapse rates, presence of a CAP, and copious shear have me interested.

 

[Tennie]

Man could y'all imagine if we had this occur during a big cold outbreak. wxtwitter would lose their minds

As is, I'm getting some "We have the 1993 Superstorm at home" vibes from that run...

 

[JPWX]

As is, I'm getting some "We have the 1993 Superstorm at home" vibes from that run...

That's exactly what me and my friend Jacob Wood's said

 

[UncleJuJu98]

 

[UncleJuJu98]

I may pull the trigger on a thread tonight. Going to see what some respected twitter weather nerds say on Twitter and the nws discussion. I don't want to make a thread for a event that could easily just be discussed in the severe weather 2023 thread

 

[JBishopwx]

 

[Clancy]

Taking models verbatim, South Florida seems to have the greatest tornado threat.

 

[KevinH]

I may pull the trigger on a thread tonight. Going to see what some respected twitter weather nerds say on Twitter and the nws discussion. I don't want to make a thread for a event that could easily just be discussed in the severe weather 2023 thread

lol

 

[UncleJuJu98]

lol

I haven't been convinced enough yet lol

 

[JPWX]

Meanwhile from CPC for Christmas Week:
"Farther east, however, the mid-level trough will begin to tap Gulf moisture, spreading it northward across the south-central and southeastern CONUS during the first half of the period. Models have been trending wetter with this system, expanding the precipitation shield farther north and east. As a result, a slight risk for heavy precipitation covers a large area from the southern half of the Great Plains eastward across the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valley, Lower Ohio Valley, and southeastern CONUS for December 23-26. The ECMWF and GEFS Probabilistic Extremes Tools (PETs) both indicate at least a 20% probability of 3-day precipitation totals exceeding the 85th percentile and at least one inch in most of this area before the surface low pressure and associated frontal boundary shift east of the CONUS. The ECMWF PET tool is more robust with precipitation early in the period across the south-central Plains, but all of the PETs look similar farther to the east and northeast. The consensus of the tools indicate that the most likely area to receive heavy precipitation is in and around the Lower Mississippi Valley, with the PETs showing odds exceeding 20 percent of 3-day precipitation totals over 1.5 inches, which is more than depicted yesterday. Based on these tools and model trends, a moderate risk for heavy precipitation is posted for the area in and around the Lower Mississippi Valley for December 23-25. In addition to heavy precipitation, the dynamic mid-level system is also expected to increase the risk of severe weather in this same region."

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Don't think a thread for tomorrow's threat is needed. Will keep any talk about it in here.

 

[Clancy]

CAMs suggest a spatially and temporally constrained threat for tomorrow, with the highest risk from the Keys up through parts of the Space Coast, generally favoring the eastern portion of the state. Wouldn't be surprised to see 1 or 2 more prominent tornadic convective bands as the system moves through tomorrow.

 

[JPWX]

CAMs suggest a spatially and temporally constrained threat for tomorrow, with the highest risk from the Keys up through parts of the Space Coast, generally favoring the eastern portion of the state. Wouldn't be surprised to see 1 or 2 more prominent tornadic convective bands as the system moves through tomorrow.
View attachment 22655View attachment 22656View attachment 22657View attachment 22658

Chasers gonna need a boat.

 

[Clancy]

Chasers gonna need a boat.

Oh boy, don't give them ideas, it is Florida after all!

 

[JBishopwx]

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Yeah if the CAMS are right, looks like we have a GOM/southwest Atlantic waterspout outbreak coming up and that's about it.

 

[KevinH]

Yeah if the CAMS are right, looks like we have a GOM/southwest Atlantic waterspout outbreak coming up and that's about it.

That would be interesting to watch….. via drone footage.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

That would be interesting to watch….. via drone footage.

Too bad most if not all of it will be in darkness.

 

[KevinH]

Too bad most if not all of it will be in darkness.

Ah… I missed that part lol