Archive Severe threat April 26-27, 2011

[TW Archive]

wxfan22
Posted 25 April 2011 - 05:00 PM

i noticed that the chance of 1-2 strong tornadoes is 70% in the new PDS tornado watch...the other PDS watch has a 60% chance.

 

[TW Archive]

mwbwhorton
Posted 25 April 2011 - 05:00 PM

The way things are progressing you would think my area will be next as im close to a PDS watch for nw louisiana but not in one yet....

 

[TW Archive]

mwbwhorton
Posted 25 April 2011 - 05:05 PM

What's scary is this may only be the firstwave another one is expected here tommorrow awsome and dangerous system....

 

[TW Archive]

aarontabr
Posted 25 April 2011 - 05:07 PM

Charles Loring, on 25 April 2011 - 04:22 PM, said:

Possible tornado near Pembroke, KY...we have had severe weather two days in a row, and tomorrow and Wednesday (the worst) has yet to arrive. My studies will suffer greatly the first portion of this week...

My studies may suffer as well for remote sensing.

 

[TW Archive]

acral
Posted 25 April 2011 - 05:07 PM

Definitely be more than one wave. Of course in MY area, maybe rain, maybe not.

 

[TW Archive]

mwbwhorton
Posted 25 April 2011 - 05:10 PM

is there a cap in place? i noticed one storm just died as it was passing nw of shreveport....that is over north central and ne louisiana ive been tracking the texas stuff and have not looked at local data....this storm was tornado warned in texas btw.....
Edited by mwbwhorton, 25 April 2011 - 05:22 PM.

 

[TW Archive]

MichelleH
Posted 25 April 2011 - 05:12 PM

I wonder what time the storms from MS will enter North Alabama tonight and how great the tornado threat will still be?

 

[TW Archive]

Tyler Penland
Posted 25 April 2011 - 05:14 PM

aarontabr, on 25 April 2011 - 05:07 PM, said:

My studies may suffer as well for remote sensing.

I have finals Wednesday.
With this weather my grades may be slightly lower. lol

 

[TW Archive]

trency911
Posted 25 April 2011 - 05:22 PM

Dr. Forbes:

Quote

Wed Apr 27. Severe thunderstorms and isolated tornadoes in southeast MI,
OH, east and south IN, south IL, southeast MO, east AR, LA (except northwest),
MS, AL, west FL panhandle, north and west-central GA, northwest SC, TN, KY,
north and west VA, WV, PA, NY, north NJ, VT, DC, west MD. TORCON - 7 middle
TN, north AL; 6 east KY; 5 south MS, south AL.

Here is Dr. Forbes's tor:con for Wednesday.

Forecast for Wednesday, April 27

AL north - 7 AL south - 5 FL west panhandle - 3 to 4 FL east panhandle - 3 to 4 night GA north - 5 GA west-central - 4 GA south and east-central - 3 to 4 night SC west - 4 SC central and east - 3 to 4 night TN middle - 7 TN west - 4 to 5 TN east - 5 to 6 MS west and north - 4 MS southeast - 5 NC west - 4 NC central - 3 to 4 night KY east - 6 KY west - 4

 

[TW Archive]

mwbwhorton
Posted 25 April 2011 - 05:29 PM

Must be a cap as everything is either running away from the main energy or things are capped...everything that's trying to cross into louisiana
is dying atm...interesting...

 

[TW Archive]

ARCC
Posted 25 April 2011 - 05:30 PM

Well this is pretty explanatory on the 18z NAM.

<<image not saved>>

 

[TW Archive]

TimHSV
Posted 25 April 2011 - 05:38 PM

This has been on the ground the least few minutes

 

[TW Archive]

ProjectVortex1974
Posted 25 April 2011 - 05:41 PM

Think it's a safe bet that schools will be dismissing early Wednesday.

 

[TW Archive]

ProjectVortex1974
Posted 25 April 2011 - 05:51 PM

Not sure if it's been posted but looks serious in the BMX afternoon AFD: LOOKING AHEAD TO WEDNESDAY...SOME OF THE SYNOPTIC PARAMETERS ARE
LOOKING DOWNRIGHT DANGEROUS. HOWEVER...I AM STILL ON THE HESITANT
SIDE AS I WOULD WANT TO WAIT TO SEE HOW EXACTLY THE MESOSCALE
PLAYS OUT LATE TUESDAY. IF THINGS GO ACCORDING TO THE NUMERICAL
OUTPUT...THE CAP SHOULD CONTINUE TO GROW AND DEVELOP DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS...WHILE ENERGY BEGINS TO BUILD AS BREAKS OF SUN
HEAT THE SURFACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. CAPE VALUES ARE SIGNIFICANT AS THEY LOOK TO RANGE ANYWHERE
FROM 1000 TO 3000 J/KG. THE CAP IS RATHER WEAK AND CONTINUES TO
TREND WEAKER WITH TIME SUGGESTING THAT IT WILL EASILY BE BROKEN
BETWEEN 1 AND 3 PM. THAT IS ABOUT THE SAME TIME THAT THE JET MAX
BEGINS TO NUDGE IN FROM THE WEST...OR AS THE 0 TO 6 KM AND THE 0
TO 8 KM BULK SHEAR VECTORS INCREASE TO GREATER THAN 60 KTS...AND
MORE IMPORTANTLY THEIR ANGLE OF ATTACK SUGGESTS SUPERCELLS AND
LONG-LIVED ONES AT THAT. MY FINAL QUESTIONS SURROUND THIS LOWEST
SHEAR LAYER FROM 0 TO 1 KM. SYNOPTICALLY...WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE
CONSISTENCY BETWEEN MODELS AND INDIVIDUAL RUNS ON EXACTLY HOW MUCH
VEERING WITH HEIGHT WILL EXIST. THIS IS DIRECTLY RELATED TO THE
MESSY SURFACE PRESSURE FROM THE DOUBLE HELIX LOW AND FROM VARYING
DEGREES OF THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW. ADD TO THAT...EVEN MORE
UNCERTAINTY OF WHETHER THIS FRONT BEGINS TO GO LINEAR. OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL FORECASTS...WAS THINKING THAT WE START SUPERCELLS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ONLY TO TRANSITION
LINEAR AFTER SUNSET...BUT A RE-EXAMINATION OF THE VECTOR ANGLES
SHOWS THAT IT MAY NOT HAPPEN UNTIL FURTHER EAST INTO GA AND NORTH
FL. SO...WHILE IT MAY BE A LINE...IT MAY ACTUALLY BE A BROKEN OR
MORE CELLULAR LINE AS THE EVENT TRANSLATES EAST OF I65.
REGARDLESS...MY BEST FORECAST IS THAT THE GREATEST OPPORTUNITY FOR
SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES WILL LIKELY BE ALONG AND WEST OF I65
FROM 1 UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO THE WEATHER EVENTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS
IS A DANGEROUS SITUATION THAT WARRANTS ATTENTION. DO WHATEVER IS
NECESSARY TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY...NOW IS THE TIME TO REVIEW
SAFETY RULES AND PLANS AS IT MAY SAVE YOUR LIFE!

 

[TW Archive]

RollTide18
Posted 25 April 2011 - 06:00 PM

Ahh man I got FB practice and physicals Wed...I hope they cancel it. So many analogs on this storm.

 

[TW Archive]

TimHSV
Posted 25 April 2011 - 06:01 PM

ProjectVortex1974, on 25 April 2011 - 05:51 PM, said:

Not sure if it's been posted but looks serious in the BMX afternoon AFD: LOOKING AHEAD TO WEDNESDAY...SOME OF THE SYNOPTIC PARAMETERS ARE
LOOKING DOWNRIGHT DANGEROUS. HOWEVER...I AM STILL ON THE HESITANT
SIDE AS I WOULD WANT TO WAIT TO SEE HOW EXACTLY THE MESOSCALE
PLAYS OUT LATE TUESDAY. IF THINGS GO ACCORDING TO THE NUMERICAL
OUTPUT...THE CAP SHOULD CONTINUE TO GROW AND DEVELOP DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS...WHILE ENERGY BEGINS TO BUILD AS BREAKS OF SUN
HEAT THE SURFACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. CAPE VALUES ARE SIGNIFICANT AS THEY LOOK TO RANGE ANYWHERE
FROM 1000 TO 3000 J/KG. THE CAP IS RATHER WEAK AND CONTINUES TO
TREND WEAKER WITH TIME SUGGESTING THAT IT WILL EASILY BE BROKEN
BETWEEN 1 AND 3 PM. THAT IS ABOUT THE SAME TIME THAT THE JET MAX
BEGINS TO NUDGE IN FROM THE WEST...OR AS THE 0 TO 6 KM AND THE 0
TO 8 KM BULK SHEAR VECTORS INCREASE TO GREATER THAN 60 KTS...AND
MORE IMPORTANTLY THEIR ANGLE OF ATTACK SUGGESTS SUPERCELLS AND
LONG-LIVED ONES AT THAT. MY FINAL QUESTIONS SURROUND THIS LOWEST
SHEAR LAYER FROM 0 TO 1 KM. SYNOPTICALLY...WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE
CONSISTENCY BETWEEN MODELS AND INDIVIDUAL RUNS ON EXACTLY HOW MUCH
VEERING WITH HEIGHT WILL EXIST. THIS IS DIRECTLY RELATED TO THE
MESSY SURFACE PRESSURE FROM THE DOUBLE HELIX LOW AND FROM VARYING
DEGREES OF THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW. ADD TO THAT...EVEN MORE
UNCERTAINTY OF WHETHER THIS FRONT BEGINS TO GO LINEAR. OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL FORECASTS...WAS THINKING THAT WE START SUPERCELLS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ONLY TO TRANSITION
LINEAR AFTER SUNSET...BUT A RE-EXAMINATION OF THE VECTOR ANGLES
SHOWS THAT IT MAY NOT HAPPEN UNTIL FURTHER EAST INTO GA AND NORTH
FL. SO...WHILE IT MAY BE A LINE...IT MAY ACTUALLY BE A BROKEN OR
MORE CELLULAR LINE AS THE EVENT TRANSLATES EAST OF I65.
REGARDLESS...MY BEST FORECAST IS THAT THE GREATEST OPPORTUNITY FOR
SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES WILL LIKELY BE ALONG AND WEST OF I65
FROM 1 UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO THE WEATHER EVENTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS
IS A DANGEROUS SITUATION THAT WARRANTS ATTENTION. DO WHATEVER IS
NECESSARY TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY...NOW IS THE TIME TO REVIEW
SAFETY RULES AND PLANS AS IT MAY SAVE YOUR LIFE!

Very ominous AFD and they mean business. This is the real deal everyone. Take their advice now. Don't take Tuesday lightly as well. A long next 72 hours ahead....
Edited by TimHSV, 25 April 2011 - 06:01 PM.

 

[TW Archive]

WxFreak
Posted 25 April 2011 - 06:11 PM



Watched the video briefing from BMX concerning the next 72 hours. According to that video, it was said they may have to move the tornado and wind threat to "extreme".

 

[TW Archive]

mwbwhorton
Posted 25 April 2011 - 06:14 PM

any more on that Hot Springs,Arkansas storm big hook there last time i checked....

 

[TW Archive]

Taylor Campbell
Posted 25 April 2011 - 06:21 PM

Perryville, AR needs to take shelter immediately!

 

[TW Archive]

Taylor Campbell
Posted 25 April 2011 - 06:29 PM

TaylorCampbell, on 25 April 2011 - 06:21 PM, said:

Perryville, AR needs to take shelter immediately!

Oh boy this one looks to be heading directly for the city. Downtown.