Obviously, this event was tragically destructive, from a human standpoint: but from a scientific angle I wonder why the 15% hatched MDT TOR did not verify. Both synoptics and thermodynamics seemed supportive of multiple long-tracked supercells with EF2+ tornadoes rather than a singular, violent event.
Yesterday’s 20Z D1 outlook did indeed call for two or more EF2+ tornado families: “
supercells, a few of which could become long-tracked...will support a threat for strong tornadoes (EF2+).” We did see multiple EF2+ tornadoes, probably multiple
intense ones, but from a lone, long-tracked supercell rather than two or more. Eventually the SPC was forced to discard the MDT TOR and side with an ENH. As has been remarked upon, in recent years, apart from some exceptions now and then, we have tended to see more of these singularly significant, isolated events rather than widespread, significant outbreaks. Of course, all this is immaterial from a human standpoint, but from a scientific one I am interested in discovering the reasons as to why yesterday did not feature more widespread discrete activity, an otherwise-conducive environment notwithstanding.
@Equus @CheeselandSkies @MattPetrulli
For the record: I am rather convinced that both Rolling Fork and Amory MS were/are capable and deserving of EF4+ ratings.