Hurricane Ian

[JBishopwx]

Here is the 06z plots Fred was mentioning.

 

[akt1985]

As of the 5AM Eastern advisory, it looks like the NHC is calling for Ian to make landfall in Taylor County in Florida’s Big Bend overnight Thursday night but rapidly weaken to a Category One upon landfall due to a lot of dry air intrusion behind the front. Honestly, storm surge might be the biggest issue rather than wind.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Last night's EURO was a 954-957mb landfall Wednesday afternoon in Longboat Key, FL.

 

[TornadoFan]

Latest dropsonde has the pressure all the way down to 990mb.

 

[TornadoFan]

Big burst of convection around the center. Latest NHC advisory has Ian as a 60 mph storm with pressure down to 991mb.

 

[gangstonc]

Looks like Ian is starting to get going. Big towers inside the radius of max winds.

 

[TornadoFan]

Nudged to the east towards Tampa even more.

 

[Fred Gossage]

Recon has found 71 kt flight-level winds and pressure down to 985.0mb on raw pass data. We may see a special NHC upgrade before 4 am Central Time...

 

[Fred Gossage]

We now have Hurricane Ian. Inner core convection is rapidly exploding on satellite the past hour or so. Forecast max intensity in the southeastern Gulf now raised to 140 mph on this advisory package.

 

[MattW]

Are the models having trouble resolving what will happen after Cuba, due to the storm's interaction with Cuba?


It seems right after crossing Cuba, the tracks go haywire.

 

[TornadoFan]

Seems like the eyewall still hasn't closed off.

 

[warneagle]

Mandatory evacuations beginning in Florida.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

A lot of wobbles on the forecast track.

 

[Blountwolf]

https://cera.coastalrisk.live/
Yeesh. Here's hoping this doesn't verify.

 

[TornadoFan]

Ian looking like a true beast now. Just gotta wait for the eye to open.

 

[warneagle]

Yeah once the eye clears out we're gonna be off to the races here. The western tip of Cuba is gonna be in for a rough time. It doesn't look like whatever land interaction it has with Cuba is going to hurt it much either. Hopefully the forecast dry air/wind shear in the eastern Gulf holds up and spares Florida the worst of it.

 

[TornadoFan]

Latest advisory has bumped the sustained winds up to 100 MPH. So that would make it a category 2 now.

 

[TornadoFan]

Pressure has dropped big time.

 

[Fred Gossage]

Yeah once the eye clears out we're gonna be off to the races here. The western tip of Cuba is gonna be in for a rough time. It doesn't look like whatever land interaction it has with Cuba is going to hurt it much either. Hopefully the forecast dry air/wind shear in the eastern Gulf holds up and spares Florida the worst of it.

It's very low, flat, and marshy across the far western tip of Cuba. We've had several storms over the years go across that portion and not have any interruption at all. A couple of the years have even intensified across it because of the "brown water effect" of the marshy terrain and how that still provides warm water to work with.

 

[warneagle]

It's very low, flat, and marshy across the far western tip of Cuba. We've had several storms over the years go across that portion and not have any interruption at all. A couple of the years have even intensified across it because of the "brown water effect" of the marshy terrain and how that still provides warm water to work with.

I actually haven't heard of the brown water effect, that's interesting. Are there other places that do that? Like the Everglades or something?