Initially when Oats was announced, I was quite dissapointed, but that was largely because in the previous 30 minutes or so leading up to the announcement, everybody thought it was going to be Thad Matta.
He was probably around #4 on my personal list of who I wanted, behind Matta, Marshall, and Beard. My biggest concern is that his sample size is small, he's only been a head coach for 4 seasons. He however has been very successful in those 4 seasons, and is highly thought of in the Buffalo area and northeast US. His teams improved each season, and he has Buffalo's only two wins in school history in the NCAAT.
The reality of the situation is that Alabama is a mid-level Power 5 job in college basketball. The list of coaches with a strong resume at a current major school is short (or non-existent) that would leave their current job and come to Alabama. You almost have to try to find the best lower-level coach, unless you get a coach with past troubles to fall into your lap like AU did with Pearl. Pitino might've been that coach, but he's got a lot sleazier past than Pearl had, and he wasn't worth the NCAA/FBI risk. Oats was that hot name in the mid-major circuit.
His first job recruiting is trying to get Petty and Lewis to stay (I suppose you could make an argument for Ingram, but you'd need a total on-the-court change in his attitude, IMO). Those two staying/leaving would affect the expectations for next season in a major way. Past that, it'll be interesting to see if he can recruit to this area and what players he goes after. He's use to recruiting areas where the players are highly skilled, but not always the best athletes. It's just the opposite down here, good athletes but often times unskilled.
Who knows if he'll work out. I'm cautiously optimistic, but then again I was with the prior two hires as well.